{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc79f82f-a000-4d3e-a2bd-224ac02a213e", "symbol": "CSSPX", "name": "iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.893, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.529, "architecture_energy": 64.683, "architecture_maturity": 86.532, "architecture_confidence": 63.921, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 52.61, "upward_expansion": 82.18, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 28.92, "downward_expansion": 11.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 708.758008, 706.040002, 695.965234, 680.22135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 723.210022, "trend_reference": 661.59833, "distance_from_trend": 0.093126, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 562.318782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286121, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.15817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.155398, "excess_performance": -0.015493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093126, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041118, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.155587, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53746, "relative_activity": 1.180726, "balance": 2.155587, "dry_up": 1.161998, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019244, "annualized_volatility": 0.118474, "from_high_reference": -0.004405, "from_low_reference": 0.245432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 661.59833, "fair_value_reference": 562.318782, "structural_low": 595.789978, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009307, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004185, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.078564, "worst_return": -0.10299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028749, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.001908, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.107907, "worst_return": -0.177882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072826, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.01933, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.168843, "worst_return": -0.082261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-3.15817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.529401, "energy": 64.683194, "activity_lines": [ 708.758008, 706.040002, 695.965234, 680.22135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }