{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc7c0a9c-8dca-4460-9498-380d33161270", "symbol": "EAX", "name": "Energy Action Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.557, "architecture_energy": 62.368, "architecture_maturity": 50.718, "architecture_confidence": 77.69, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.84, "rotation_up": 13.25, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 37.85, "rotation_down": 67.27, "downward_expansion": 83.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.358667, 0.371818, 0.380619, 0.394651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.37, "trend_reference": 0.41525, "distance_from_trend": -0.10897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.327997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.725275, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08642, "excess_performance": -0.150125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115824, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.171104, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106, "relative_activity": 0.012471, "balance": 2.171104, "dry_up": 1.378284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0842, "annualized_volatility": 0.620206, "from_high_reference": -0.339286, "from_low_reference": 0.15625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.41525, "fair_value_reference": 0.327997, "structural_low": 0.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.047559, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.111062, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.103392, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.191011, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.145877, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.186888, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.44186, "worst_return": -0.447761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.405667, 0.392364, 0.400786, 0.413769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.34, "volume": 8798, "typical_volume": 7950.15, "trend": 0.42875, "fair_value": 0.324984, "relative_strength": -23.268709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.611148, "energy": 30.845257, "activity_lines": [ 0.387667, 0.383364, 0.393929, 0.407645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 37956, "typical_volume": 9488.3, "trend": 0.423583, "fair_value": 0.325881, "relative_strength": -20.812412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.337469, "energy": 40.735331, "activity_lines": [ 0.373, 0.377273, 0.388476, 0.402565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9488.3, "trend": 0.419083, "fair_value": 0.326875, "relative_strength": -22.608626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.597378, "energy": 56.236869, "activity_lines": [ 0.360333, 0.372091, 0.383405, 0.397817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.37, "volume": 106, "typical_volume": 8499.7, "trend": 0.41525, "fair_value": 0.327997, "relative_strength": -20.725275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.557032, "energy": 62.368184, "activity_lines": [ 0.358667, 0.371818, 0.380619, 0.394651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }