{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc7eb332-88e7-4253-90af-4d63258ad244", "symbol": "HECO", "name": "SPDR GALAXY HEDGED DIGITAL ASSET ECOSYSTEM ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.593, "architecture_energy": 33.842, "architecture_maturity": 74.851, "architecture_confidence": 88.499, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.66, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 56.59, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 22.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.427767, 65.121535, 62.944166, 58.681164 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 64.242, "trend_reference": 53.61797, "distance_from_trend": 0.198143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.012713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.60554, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.813225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.506387, "excess_performance": 0.318934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.198143, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.60554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033626, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.178132, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.506387, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.072302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 551, "relative_activity": 0.02518, "balance": 0.072302, "dry_up": 0.183296, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072054, "annualized_volatility": 0.353755, "from_high_reference": -0.135137, "from_low_reference": 0.905686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.61797, "fair_value_reference": 40.012713, "structural_low": 37.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025204, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.309033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004681, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 25.616014, "volume": 751, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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59.6764, 55.45026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.5774, "volume": 2667, "typical_volume": 21367.55, "trend": 51.412553, "fair_value": 39.252538, "relative_strength": 24.299017, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.959992, "energy": 55.623094, "activity_lines": [ 65.324487, 65.520956, 60.576643, 56.283022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.5904, "volume": 10010, "typical_volume": 21859.0, "trend": 52.235837, "fair_value": 39.521292, "relative_strength": 29.170522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.4569, "energy": 45.450119, "activity_lines": [ 65.122987, 65.675533, 61.572966, 57.197722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.9427, "volume": 2816, "typical_volume": 21869.8, "trend": 52.95551, "fair_value": 39.767973, "relative_strength": 24.161906, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.49121, "energy": 37.677188, "activity_lines": [ 64.611527, 65.400898, 62.29625, 57.953003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.242, "volume": 551, "typical_volume": 21882.65, "trend": 53.61797, "fair_value": 40.012713, "relative_strength": 17.813225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.59269, "energy": 33.841592, "activity_lines": [ 64.427767, 65.121535, 62.944166, 58.681164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }