{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc823871-52a5-4727-8a09-a8889ac38014", "symbol": "000049", "name": "Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.355, "architecture_energy": 27.076, "architecture_maturity": 36.015, "architecture_confidence": 60.244, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.22, "rotation_up": 23.39, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 61.5, "rotation_down": 39.41, "downward_expansion": 64.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.171333, 24.041636, 24.808428, 25.303096 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.66, "trend_reference": 25.825375, "distance_from_trend": -0.045125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.404155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.560195, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045026, "excess_performance": -0.052426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002351, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045026, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38199060, "relative_activity": 0.787459, "balance": 1.031773, "dry_up": 0.911024, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07201, "annualized_volatility": 0.340066, "from_high_reference": -0.210252, "from_low_reference": 0.10583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.825375, "fair_value_reference": 24.404155, "structural_low": 22.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.003423, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": 0.010108, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.359863, "worst_return": -0.178638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010613, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.008276, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.446883, "worst_return": -0.217479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002589, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.794476, "worst_return": -0.268108, "sufficient": true }, { 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45.836386, "activity_lines": [ 23.970666, 24.382019, 25.489828, 25.823251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.450001, "volume": 48638842, "typical_volume": 48722531.0, "trend": 26.091042, "fair_value": 24.525952, "relative_strength": -10.084355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.64937, "energy": 41.755584, "activity_lines": [ 23.862, 24.082466, 25.246983, 25.644177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.629999, "volume": 40652274, "typical_volume": 49448999.0, "trend": 25.994161, "fair_value": 24.479562, "relative_strength": -9.525958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.765919, "energy": 38.319735, "activity_lines": [ 23.775333, 23.904559, 25.034845, 25.4854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.4, "volume": 49282388, "typical_volume": 49525211.95, "trend": 25.891557, "fair_value": 24.437259, "relative_strength": -4.979103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.725467, "energy": 32.952197, "activity_lines": [ 23.973333, 23.924181, 24.903413, 25.382551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.66, "volume": 38199060, "typical_volume": 48509281.3, "trend": 25.825375, "fair_value": 24.404155, "relative_strength": -8.560195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.354689, "energy": 27.075819, "activity_lines": [ 24.171333, 24.041636, 24.808428, 25.303096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }