{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc841737-4c2e-49b4-aabc-8b00f1bc1b31", "symbol": "FDEV", "name": "FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL MULTIFACTOR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.931, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.406, "architecture_energy": 82.68, "architecture_maturity": 8.317, "architecture_confidence": 61.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.22, "rotation_up": 84.73, "upward_expansion": 95.15, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.48, "downward_expansion": 17.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.128267, 36.595601, 36.26947, 36.099632 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 37.8708, "trend_reference": 35.931777, "distance_from_trend": 0.053964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.172024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298189, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.367824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048541, "excess_performance": -0.077084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053964, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.298189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023678, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006109, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.189249, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143664, "relative_activity": 0.974697, "balance": 1.189249, "dry_up": 0.867327, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020503, "annualized_volatility": 0.137099, "from_high_reference": -0.001034, "from_low_reference": 0.202281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.931777, "fair_value_reference": 29.172024, "structural_low": 33.958616, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.008861, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.002057, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.120971, "worst_return": -0.060659, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036498, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024643, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.187079, "worst_return": -0.050807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06707, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.088404, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225556, "worst_return": -0.00283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.959348, "energy": 34.485874, "activity_lines": [ 36.052, 35.880176, 35.855564, 35.812439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.64, "volume": 76681, "typical_volume": 140601.65, "trend": 35.729567, "fair_value": 28.993063, "relative_strength": -1.216774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.653263, "energy": 51.23253, "activity_lines": [ 36.309333, 36.02967, 35.946353, 35.876123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.15, "volume": 193934, "typical_volume": 145346.4, "trend": 35.826844, "fair_value": 29.081007, "relative_strength": -0.906113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.57383, "energy": 69.348686, "activity_lines": [ 36.662, 36.255882, 36.07939, 35.967764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.8708, "volume": 143664, "typical_volume": 147393.45, "trend": 35.931777, "fair_value": 29.172024, "relative_strength": -2.367824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.406395, "energy": 82.679652, "activity_lines": [ 37.128267, 36.595601, 36.26947, 36.099632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }