{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc89cbc4-77b4-438e-b35c-9806ef95a7a5", "symbol": "STC", "name": "Stewart Information Services Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.89, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.633, "architecture_energy": 26.194, "architecture_maturity": 9.872, "architecture_confidence": 59.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.77, "rotation_up": 45.5, "upward_expansion": 72.96, "deceleration": 61.12, "rotation_down": 18.94, "downward_expansion": 1.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.402, 68.2353, 67.569986, 66.871911 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.19, "trend_reference": 66.35496, "distance_from_trend": 0.027655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.108791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097912, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.061029, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029962, "excess_performance": -0.155587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058091, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.835616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1041685, "relative_activity": 0.992953, "balance": 1.835616, "dry_up": 1.197405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062474, "annualized_volatility": 0.302356, "from_high_reference": -0.112201, "from_low_reference": 0.203674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.35496, "fair_value_reference": 62.108791, "structural_low": 56.651546, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.013297, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.010164, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.13958, "worst_return": -0.120902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033926, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.194754, "worst_return": -0.114042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070831, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.103823, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304658, "worst_return": -0.120212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 67.853474, 67.030147, 66.458383, 66.251212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.0, "volume": 941383, "typical_volume": 1050537.0, "trend": 66.460045, "fair_value": 61.63353, "relative_strength": -3.012098, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.74914, "energy": 60.063425, "activity_lines": [ 69.436, 67.964295, 67.057068, 66.611869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.42, "volume": 1679125, "typical_volume": 1076603.75, "trend": 66.375978, "fair_value": 61.791655, "relative_strength": -8.487279, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.809587, "energy": 47.916419, "activity_lines": [ 69.005333, 68.014377, 67.209341, 66.673801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.59, "volume": 1362494, "typical_volume": 1095060.65, "trend": 66.333329, "fair_value": 61.947015, "relative_strength": -9.023049, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.199692, "energy": 35.61669, "activity_lines": [ 68.567333, 68.07427, 67.370697, 66.752125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.19, "volume": 1041685, "typical_volume": 1049078.1, "trend": 66.35496, "fair_value": 62.108791, "relative_strength": -11.061029, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.632569, "energy": 26.193683, "activity_lines": [ 68.402, 68.2353, 67.569986, 66.871911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }