{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc8e3cfb-e8ae-4355-b577-67b87d5c1586", "symbol": "SKUE", "name": "Skue Sparebank", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.192, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.344, "architecture_energy": 18.498, "architecture_maturity": 23.876, "architecture_confidence": 47.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 44.38, "upward_expansion": 58.62, "deceleration": 60.54, "rotation_down": 18.86, "downward_expansion": 15.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 332.366667, 331.736364, 332.089763, 331.902877 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 336.0, "trend_reference": 330.231068, "distance_from_trend": 0.017469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 257.657331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.027388, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066931, "excess_performance": -0.058063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017469, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060415, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066931, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2280, "relative_activity": 0.362841, "balance": 1.565118, "dry_up": 0.206047, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022367, "annualized_volatility": 0.108244, "from_high_reference": -0.027215, "from_low_reference": 0.175566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 330.231068, "fair_value_reference": 257.657331, "structural_low": 315.049988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016941, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.051382, "worst_return": -0.061947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04411, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008751, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.119266, "worst_return": -0.035398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08805, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12844, "worst_return": 0.070796, "sufficient": false }, 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"up", "direction": 19.344723, "energy": 10.118836, "activity_lines": [ 331.5, 331.594546, 332.622752, 331.214106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 328.0, "volume": 1592, "typical_volume": 8665.65, "trend": 328.986534, "fair_value": 253.503798, "relative_strength": -4.843022, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.161997, "energy": 5.985887, "activity_lines": [ 330.423334, 330.822728, 332.162787, 331.185034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 331.0, "volume": 699, "typical_volume": 8091.7, "trend": 329.459985, "fair_value": 254.530833, "relative_strength": -4.956143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.915375, "energy": 10.301039, "activity_lines": [ 330.346667, 330.796364, 331.999456, 331.314935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 334.5, "volume": 2079, "typical_volume": 8074.0, "trend": 329.964188, "fair_value": 255.580304, "relative_strength": -6.082958, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.263229, "energy": 12.666558, "activity_lines": [ 331.59, 331.449091, 332.195326, 331.640097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 328.0, "volume": 121, "typical_volume": 6942.9, "trend": 329.962732, "fair_value": 256.608382, "relative_strength": -8.124239, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.546002, "energy": 5.02934, "activity_lines": [ 330.566667, 330.856364, 331.754793, 331.513375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 336.0, "volume": 2280, "typical_volume": 6283.75, "trend": 330.231068, "fair_value": 257.657331, "relative_strength": -6.027388, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.344398, "energy": 18.497696, "activity_lines": [ 332.366667, 331.736364, 332.089763, 331.902877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }