{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc94a8e8-357e-4eb9-a60d-2fd5e3d6302a", "symbol": "605001", "name": "Qingdao Victall Railway Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.038, "architecture_energy": 64.004, "architecture_maturity": 58.909, "architecture_confidence": 95.594, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.28, "rotation_down": 59.78, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.246667, 5.394727, 5.899888, 6.318453 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.46, "trend_reference": 6.847657, "distance_from_trend": -0.202647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.310935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134835, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.812863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314363, "excess_performance": -0.271159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301463, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.228129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331003, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28257126, "relative_activity": 1.179041, "balance": 0.331003, "dry_up": 1.245126, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086677, "annualized_volatility": 0.317893, "from_high_reference": -0.341235, "from_low_reference": 0.154334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.847657, "fair_value_reference": 6.310935, "structural_low": 4.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.001223, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001426, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.813204, "worst_return": -0.178121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00847, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028811, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.297907, "worst_return": -0.293876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.026588, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053576, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.471139, "worst_return": -0.19875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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5.485333, 5.756692, 6.29792, 6.66951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.85, "volume": 36579735, "typical_volume": 23635230.65, "trend": 6.989411, "fair_value": 6.324653, "relative_strength": -30.237066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.870548, "energy": 84.976984, "activity_lines": [ 5.248667, 5.540176, 6.119815, 6.526545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.22, "volume": 26977305, "typical_volume": 23790763.9, "trend": 6.916011, "fair_value": 6.317231, "relative_strength": -24.693631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.182966, "energy": 69.146647, "activity_lines": [ 5.199333, 5.43, 5.991774, 6.412389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.46, "volume": 28257126, "typical_volume": 23966194.7, "trend": 6.847657, "fair_value": 6.310935, "relative_strength": -22.812863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.038026, "energy": 64.004024, "activity_lines": [ 5.246667, 5.394727, 5.899888, 6.318453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }