{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc995b15-c169-432e-9403-96185469d848", "symbol": "IMIE", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI All Country World Investable Market UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.103, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.972, "architecture_energy": 60.854, "architecture_maturity": 90.536, "architecture_confidence": 63.341, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.18, "rotation_up": 50.07, "upward_expansion": 81.53, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 10.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.409333, 11.386364, 11.225648, 10.985682 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.612, "trend_reference": 10.701773, "distance_from_trend": 0.085054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.948138, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2977, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.915342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139951, "excess_performance": -0.03094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085054, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139951, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.550491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1842642, "relative_activity": 1.96508, "balance": 2.550491, "dry_up": 1.767096, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018893, "annualized_volatility": 0.112458, "from_high_reference": -0.003775, "from_low_reference": 0.262998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.701773, "fair_value_reference": 8.948138, "structural_low": 9.666, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011069, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.006049, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.060227, "worst_return": -0.077626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030642, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.019455, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.089518, "worst_return": -0.150252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078463, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007548, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.131195, "worst_return": -0.073985, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066456, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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"trend": 10.61352, "fair_value": 8.89191, "relative_strength": -1.758757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.86511, "energy": 63.063367, "activity_lines": [ 11.3664, 11.343455, 11.115943, 10.883218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.246, "volume": 2231653, "typical_volume": 870455.85, "trend": 10.656293, "fair_value": 8.918692, "relative_strength": -3.228825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.556595, "energy": 50.635357, "activity_lines": [ 11.3252, 11.332727, 11.156124, 10.924023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.612, "volume": 1842642, "typical_volume": 937692.9, "trend": 10.701773, "fair_value": 8.948138, "relative_strength": -2.915342, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.972119, "energy": 60.853632, "activity_lines": [ 11.409333, 11.386364, 11.225648, 10.985682 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }