{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc9a7820-f8c6-443b-bbdb-6cda5116ee2d", "symbol": "AVAL", "name": "Grupo Aval", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.131, "architecture_energy": 20.205, "architecture_maturity": 36.176, "architecture_confidence": 91.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.15, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 58.9, "deceleration": 88.38, "rotation_down": 23.72, "downward_expansion": 13.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.039349, 5.080575, 4.918391, 4.755772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.06, "trend_reference": 4.591216, "distance_from_trend": 0.102105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.895923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.747284, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.258461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118595, "excess_performance": -0.00703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.747284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072585, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 735278, "relative_activity": 0.66051, "balance": 1.167475, "dry_up": 0.664426, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114338, "annualized_volatility": 0.474509, "from_high_reference": -0.179291, "from_low_reference": 0.7605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.591216, "fair_value_reference": 2.895923, "structural_low": 3.318005, "invalidation": "A 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0.572258, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.380792, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.878033, "worst_return": 0.266483, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009259, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014218, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087262, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.159639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.365355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"direction": 56.788835, "energy": 42.895117, "activity_lines": [ 5.174789, 5.038692, 4.769883, 4.628323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.906584, "volume": 790376, "typical_volume": 1203077.4, "trend": 4.495833, "fair_value": 2.841788, "relative_strength": 10.432567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.696281, "energy": 25.106241, "activity_lines": [ 5.048871, 5.049189, 4.804981, 4.656712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.766966, "volume": 718338, "typical_volume": 1106676.1, "trend": 4.516197, "fair_value": 2.857965, "relative_strength": 7.275716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.398063, "energy": 18.607056, "activity_lines": [ 4.91825, 5.026781, 4.822708, 4.674205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.28, "volume": 714557, "typical_volume": 1109074.0, "trend": 4.559508, "fair_value": 2.877869, "relative_strength": 16.546274, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.122724, "energy": 23.992676, "activity_lines": [ 5.023078, 5.083453, 4.88433, 4.723482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.06, "volume": 735278, "typical_volume": 1113196.75, "trend": 4.591216, "fair_value": 2.895923, "relative_strength": 7.258461, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.130787, "energy": 20.20459, "activity_lines": [ 5.039349, 5.080575, 4.918391, 4.755772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }