{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cc9ec641-d509-47df-9656-9eb62adf1dc5", "symbol": "IYF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. FINLS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.4, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.769, "architecture_energy": 88.264, "architecture_maturity": 13.481, "architecture_confidence": 74.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.17, "rotation_up": 81.82, "upward_expansion": 98.83, "deceleration": 39.66, "rotation_down": 11.43, "downward_expansion": 20.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.019333, 133.085288, 129.377707, 127.014775 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 136.86, "trend_reference": 125.155933, "distance_from_trend": 0.093516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.267069, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287887, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.234168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06403, "excess_performance": -0.061595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083046, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085483, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.9716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3471774, "relative_activity": 2.131719, "balance": 5.9716, "dry_up": 1.593519, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025576, "annualized_volatility": 0.146304, "from_high_reference": -0.011413, "from_low_reference": 0.208121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.155933, "fair_value_reference": 106.267069, "structural_low": 113.283351, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.010011, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.003953, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.061074, "worst_return": -0.153131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000773, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.13729, "worst_return": -0.0966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.032284, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.019364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25836, "worst_return": -0.131363, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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105.486645, "relative_strength": -0.045247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.314721, "energy": 89.737849, "activity_lines": [ 133.02, 130.695208, 127.280934, 125.606987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.65, "volume": 1720722, "typical_volume": 1556208.1, "trend": 124.944906, "fair_value": 105.869039, "relative_strength": -0.570267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.081128, "energy": 87.861849, "activity_lines": [ 133.878, 131.791401, 128.270462, 126.246059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.86, "volume": 3471774, "typical_volume": 1628626.75, "trend": 125.155933, "fair_value": 106.267069, "relative_strength": -2.234168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.768786, "energy": 88.263524, "activity_lines": [ 135.019333, 133.085288, 129.377707, 127.014775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }