{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cca7f6f8-c7a5-49a7-ba32-ed2771bd2062", "symbol": "AKR", "name": "Acadia Realty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.216, "architecture_energy": 24.895, "architecture_maturity": 31.133, "architecture_confidence": 57.8, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.67, "rotation_up": 44.18, "upward_expansion": 73.39, "deceleration": 61.31, "rotation_down": 21.84, "downward_expansion": 4.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.765333, 21.718354, 21.59931, 21.289031 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.65, "trend_reference": 20.926597, "distance_from_trend": -0.013217, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.770018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.560302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005434, "excess_performance": -0.131058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8284326, "relative_activity": 1.253543, "balance": 0.999705, "dry_up": 1.08054, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052571, "annualized_volatility": 0.25992, "from_high_reference": -0.103343, "from_low_reference": 0.173005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.926597, "fair_value_reference": 18.770018, "structural_low": 18.555901, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008966, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.018734, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.122981, "worst_return": -0.102772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003905, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022183, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.245142, "worst_return": -0.077279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.107014, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027377, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.301069, "worst_return": 0.029835, "sufficient": true }, 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21.98818, 21.805385, 21.520995, 21.203349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.47, "volume": 6834075, "typical_volume": 6575309.25, "trend": 20.930027, "fair_value": 18.727791, "relative_strength": 1.756077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.999913, "energy": 58.748964, "activity_lines": [ 22.206667, 21.933852, 21.65284, 21.307097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.65, "volume": 8284326, "typical_volume": 6608730.9, "trend": 20.926597, "fair_value": 18.770018, "relative_strength": -9.560302, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.215931, "energy": 24.894627, "activity_lines": [ 21.765333, 21.718354, 21.59931, 21.289031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }