{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccb0c9de-b8fc-464f-a7b1-d0ef3740d40b", "symbol": "PBI", "name": "Pitney Bowes Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.574, "architecture_energy": 47.434, "architecture_maturity": 95.603, "architecture_confidence": 65.803, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.01, "rotation_up": 41.59, "upward_expansion": 76.71, "deceleration": 73.81, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 8.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.747333, 17.729818, 16.945368, 15.661227 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.42, "trend_reference": 13.961842, "distance_from_trend": 0.247686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.334223, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.090177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.104511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.639409, "excess_performance": 0.513784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.247686, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.090177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087409, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.251045, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.639409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.104048, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10482595, "relative_activity": 0.753401, "balance": 2.104048, "dry_up": 0.632946, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081227, "annualized_volatility": 0.391368, "from_high_reference": -0.086523, "from_low_reference": 0.974618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.961842, "fair_value_reference": 8.334223, "structural_low": 9.631486, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.002585, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009694, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.226635, "worst_return": -0.163866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.145003, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.087715, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.450347, "worst_return": -0.17857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.318622, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.178583, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.398967, "worst_return": -0.195085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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13.484528, "fair_value": 8.150212, "relative_strength": 35.981063, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.008213, "energy": 61.275476, "activity_lines": [ 18.012667, 17.696364, 16.518192, 15.162129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.53, "volume": 10270494, "typical_volume": 14471849.9, "trend": 13.729454, "fair_value": 8.242714, "relative_strength": 31.06149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.457015, "energy": 55.001748, "activity_lines": [ 17.878667, 17.743818, 16.754759, 15.423127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.42, "volume": 10482595, "typical_volume": 13913690.8, "trend": 13.961842, "fair_value": 8.334223, "relative_strength": 25.104511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.574091, "energy": 47.434042, "activity_lines": [ 17.747333, 17.729818, 16.945368, 15.661227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }