{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccb0efcc-72d0-4664-9a81-0eb50ada586a", "symbol": "TSAT", "name": "Telesat Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.502, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.392, "architecture_energy": 21.876, "architecture_maturity": 47.623, "architecture_confidence": 92.052, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.64, "rotation_up": 36.05, "upward_expansion": 54.99, "deceleration": 83.4, "rotation_down": 33.72, "downward_expansion": 25.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.470665, 61.470544, 63.786952, 61.469634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 81.769997, "trend_reference": 56.868, "distance_from_trend": 0.437891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.863109, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.833028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 51.200143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.255724, "excess_performance": 1.135303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.437891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152473, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.833028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.512001, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.255724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.863473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400600, "relative_activity": 2.067026, "balance": 0.863473, "dry_up": 1.503444, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117148, "annualized_volatility": 0.875359, "from_high_reference": -0.006198, "from_low_reference": 1.988669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.868, "fair_value_reference": 28.863109, "structural_low": 34.540001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.168188, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.116415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.466269, "worst_return": -0.114381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.326162, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.221296, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.623881, "worst_return": -0.228356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.37443, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.311781, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.909639, "worst_return": -0.373039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.53316, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.312747, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.002985, "worst_return": 0.063335, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.355422, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06746, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.357079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.261861, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.41986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.262263, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.367391, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 89400, "typical_volume": 9125.0, "trend": 12.039333, "fair_value": 17.083077, "relative_strength": 71.72188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.32098, 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"fair_value": 27.931891, "relative_strength": -0.228585, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.968456, "energy": 19.730406, "activity_lines": [ 58.377999, 61.832909, 63.737571, 60.110774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.959999, "volume": 142700, "typical_volume": 188720.0, "trend": 55.241, "fair_value": 28.195096, "relative_strength": 2.704861, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.636452, "energy": 23.496119, "activity_lines": [ 55.951333, 59.660727, 62.910714, 59.989699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.07, "volume": 200400, "typical_volume": 190430.0, "trend": 55.66, "fair_value": 28.450994, "relative_strength": 1.016962, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.36615, "energy": 45.848649, "activity_lines": [ 54.003333, 57.668908, 61.945809, 59.785118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.769997, "volume": 400600, "typical_volume": 193805.0, "trend": 56.868, "fair_value": 28.863109, "relative_strength": 51.200143, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.392237, "energy": 21.876112, "activity_lines": [ 62.470665, 61.470544, 63.786952, 61.469634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }