{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccb6b1c8-e931-46e9-a964-32a30a3f454e", "symbol": "RYAAY", "name": "Ryanair Holdings PLC ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.435, "architecture_energy": 26.093, "architecture_maturity": 20.834, "architecture_confidence": 65.209, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.53, "rotation_up": 13.33, "upward_expansion": 12.38, "deceleration": 59.38, "rotation_down": 54.59, "downward_expansion": 64.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.399262, 60.732929, 60.141883, 60.399376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.19, "trend_reference": 61.734348, "distance_from_trend": -0.025016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.851379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.160818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.309921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122723, "excess_performance": -0.310176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.160818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003393, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122723, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3741288, "relative_activity": 0.524626, "balance": 1.005442, "dry_up": 1.064529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070457, "annualized_volatility": 0.381982, "from_high_reference": -0.183855, "from_low_reference": 0.132668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.734348, "fair_value_reference": 51.851379, "structural_low": 53.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016582, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.002919, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.24389, "worst_return": -0.186957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031724, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.097568, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.441396, "worst_return": -0.212979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.215058, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.068377, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.499058, "worst_return": -0.414475, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.184281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.137483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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63.392552, "fair_value": 51.327427, "relative_strength": -12.652101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.134164, "energy": 35.099848, "activity_lines": [ 63.809078, 61.908659, 60.413268, 61.313503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.115108, "volume": 9339831, "typical_volume": 7323739.6, "trend": 63.062368, "fair_value": 51.463936, "relative_strength": -11.606036, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.99275, "energy": 33.61447, "activity_lines": [ 63.498514, 62.219696, 60.582402, 61.231088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.436693, "volume": 10041203, "typical_volume": 7354409.5, "trend": 62.502506, "fair_value": 51.580788, "relative_strength": -17.934128, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.762209, "energy": 17.675567, "activity_lines": [ 61.176137, 61.424747, 60.23633, 60.803625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.084625, "volume": 7243755, "typical_volume": 7367901.15, "trend": 62.037973, "fair_value": 51.707401, "relative_strength": -15.573159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.690699, "energy": 22.376766, "activity_lines": [ 59.723291, 60.873483, 60.081219, 60.5186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.19, "volume": 3741288, "typical_volume": 7131342.55, "trend": 61.734348, "fair_value": 51.851379, "relative_strength": -16.309921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.434571, "energy": 26.093377, "activity_lines": [ 59.399262, 60.732929, 60.141883, 60.399376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }