{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccbcbbf8-bf0a-4139-8a34-e1cb6cae6a18", "symbol": "C007", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MDAX ESG UCITS ETF EUR Distributing", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.766, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.437, "architecture_energy": 4.806, "architecture_maturity": 30.229, "architecture_confidence": 69.185, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.25, "rotation_up": 25.73, "upward_expansion": 44.73, "deceleration": 77.02, "rotation_down": 26.65, "downward_expansion": 31.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.424333, 26.464909, 26.594166, 26.451763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.995, "trend_reference": 26.160333, "distance_from_trend": -0.00632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.55629, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.380629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073287, "excess_performance": -0.017183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061162, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073287, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.902159, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17618, "relative_activity": 1.076454, "balance": 1.902159, "dry_up": 2.74501, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022815, "annualized_volatility": 0.16891, "from_high_reference": -0.054727, "from_low_reference": 0.145406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.160333, "fair_value_reference": 23.55629, "structural_low": 22.695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007362, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016714, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.088894, "worst_return": -0.029006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035582, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.023351, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119184, "worst_return": 0.014056, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.034419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080779, "worst_return": -0.088174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021307, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04031, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083657, "active": 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26.145, "fair_value": 23.517204, "relative_strength": -2.294686, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.796761, "energy": 25.021179, "activity_lines": [ 26.632666, 26.592363, 26.661167, 26.436419 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 26.549999, "volume": 19116, "typical_volume": 16478.5, "trend": 26.162167, "fair_value": 23.539571, "relative_strength": -2.139213, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.172934, "energy": 16.925506, "activity_lines": [ 26.625333, 26.576909, 26.653119, 26.462548 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 25.995, "volume": 17618, "typical_volume": 16366.7, "trend": 26.160333, "fair_value": 23.55629, "relative_strength": -2.380629, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.437493, "energy": 4.806335, "activity_lines": [ 26.424333, 26.464909, 26.594166, 26.451763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }