{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccbecdcf-882b-4bd5-9de3-0cae5b3e253b", "symbol": "688670", "name": "Jiangsu Gdk Biological Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.308, "architecture_energy": 40.914, "architecture_maturity": 47.171, "architecture_confidence": 89.371, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 19.51, "upward_expansion": 4.92, "deceleration": 55.83, "rotation_down": 52.41, "downward_expansion": 75.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.501333, 14.694, 15.645524, 16.38529 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.65, "trend_reference": 17.541333, "distance_from_trend": -0.107822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.109615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.830083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.242498, "excess_performance": -0.199294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126297, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242498, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7464709, "relative_activity": 0.998491, "balance": 0.562118, "dry_up": 1.179196, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13335, "annualized_volatility": 0.513024, "from_high_reference": -0.498397, "from_low_reference": 0.252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.541333, "fair_value_reference": 18.109615, "structural_low": 12.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.040225, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.02928, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.330179, "worst_return": -0.280803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.087097, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.071802, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157982, "worst_return": -0.358397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.159374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.29115, "worst_return": -0.521739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -60.418564, "energy": 48.265323, "activity_lines": [ 15.299333, 15.777091, 16.622667, 17.375978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.54, "volume": 11339283, "typical_volume": 7379683.65, "trend": 18.255667, "fair_value": 18.541667, "relative_strength": -15.999741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.677207, "energy": 45.368748, "activity_lines": [ 15.118, 15.413818, 16.364571, 17.118107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.97, "volume": 9873177, "typical_volume": 7453733.6, "trend": 17.959, "fair_value": 18.345128, "relative_strength": -25.794786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.655462, "energy": 48.08862, "activity_lines": [ 14.455333, 14.841273, 15.982333, 16.777097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.93, "volume": 6585460, "typical_volume": 7461452.95, "trend": 17.694, "fair_value": 18.199231, "relative_strength": -20.426435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.520135, "energy": 48.051852, "activity_lines": [ 14.2, 14.562364, 15.720952, 16.517161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.65, "volume": 7464709, "typical_volume": 7475990.35, "trend": 17.541333, "fair_value": 18.109615, "relative_strength": -12.830083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.307543, "energy": 40.914499, "activity_lines": [ 14.501333, 14.694, 15.645524, 16.38529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }