{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cccd10cd-aa6f-40ab-ae9b-bfeca559f175", "symbol": "TARA", "name": "Protara Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.901, "architecture_energy": 44.579, "architecture_maturity": 63.942, "architecture_confidence": 91.808, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 26.17, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 57.21, "rotation_down": 46.01, "downward_expansion": 77.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.057333, 4.071636, 4.327524, 4.632602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 5.085, "distance_from_trend": -0.189774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.619482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.05166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380451, "excess_performance": -0.567905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138284, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380451, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.377823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1818152, "relative_activity": 0.573675, "balance": 0.377823, "dry_up": 0.610855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110818, "annualized_volatility": 0.375665, "from_high_reference": -0.473146, "from_low_reference": 0.387205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.085, "fair_value_reference": 3.619482, "structural_low": 3.615, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.029953, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.041783, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 1.326772, "worst_return": -0.368996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.033625, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.112545, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.382199, "worst_return": -0.344894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.112018, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.214368, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.427632, "worst_return": -0.457735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107759, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.444463, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.381166, "worst_return": -0.621802, "sufficient": true } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.392713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.265306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018809, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015924, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.291765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 3480754.3, "trend": 5.188, "fair_value": 3.598585, "relative_strength": -25.748017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.160694, "energy": 47.323278, "activity_lines": [ 4.113333, 4.127273, 4.450381, 4.780172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 2125623, "typical_volume": 3349741.65, "trend": 5.139333, "fair_value": 3.6082, "relative_strength": -28.017509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.454348, "energy": 47.096907, "activity_lines": [ 4.045333, 4.072182, 4.376238, 4.698366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 1818152, "typical_volume": 3169306.9, "trend": 5.085, "fair_value": 3.619482, "relative_strength": -28.05166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.901114, "energy": 44.578979, "activity_lines": [ 4.057333, 4.071636, 4.327524, 4.632602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }