{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccdea784-5e33-4590-b1b4-465097df6589", "symbol": "GOAI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Robotics & AI UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.473, "architecture_energy": 41.985, "architecture_maturity": 72.633, "architecture_confidence": 93.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.71, "rotation_up": 41.89, "upward_expansion": 63.23, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 22.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 138.640002, 138.648327, 135.991771, 130.198098 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 144.130005, "trend_reference": 123.144333, "distance_from_trend": 0.170415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.985396, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.278932, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.343005, "excess_performance": 0.289694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100086, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132789, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343005, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.942006, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18039, "relative_activity": 0.807342, "balance": 11.942006, "dry_up": 1.051281, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044246, "annualized_volatility": 0.221636, "from_high_reference": -0.019324, "from_low_reference": 0.419287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.144333, "fair_value_reference": 103.985396, "structural_low": 101.551003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010998, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.055362, "worst_return": -0.126855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003311, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153234, "worst_return": -0.137476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092066, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.032534, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.298147, "worst_return": -0.041257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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69.760126, "energy": 64.26266, "activity_lines": [ 140.067396, 139.462197, 131.765093, 125.981067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 134.289993, "volume": 12963, "typical_volume": 23920.9, "trend": 120.609466, "fair_value": 103.038787, "relative_strength": 10.477093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.254778, "energy": 50.658686, "activity_lines": [ 138.281328, 138.794724, 132.724431, 126.911013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.490005, "volume": 45475, "typical_volume": 23124.95, "trend": 121.325799, "fair_value": 103.30987, "relative_strength": 10.133802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.995077, "energy": 44.077314, "activity_lines": [ 136.775332, 138.055489, 133.57347, 127.806532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 136.410004, "volume": 17481, "typical_volume": 22519.75, "trend": 122.144933, "fair_value": 103.613376, "relative_strength": 9.896129, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.028953, "energy": 34.385174, "activity_lines": [ 136.412001, 137.637381, 134.482066, 128.779706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 144.130005, "volume": 18039, "typical_volume": 22343.7, "trend": 123.144333, "fair_value": 103.985396, "relative_strength": 13.278932, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.473254, "energy": 41.984628, "activity_lines": [ 138.640002, 138.648327, 135.991771, 130.198098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }