{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccf3f05d-1e16-4729-84d9-aff6ffc35062", "symbol": "603738", "name": "TKD Science and Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.208, "architecture_energy": 36.806, "architecture_maturity": 56.461, "architecture_confidence": 49.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 72.06, "rotation_down": 65.32, "downward_expansion": 37.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.089333, 40.963712, 43.468016, 39.960124 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.630001, "trend_reference": 34.120381, "distance_from_trend": 0.073552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.411072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.989564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.590512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.276569, "excess_performance": 1.319773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.407647, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.989564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.972483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.415905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.963022, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.276569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265588426, "relative_activity": 1.374662, "balance": 0.765422, "dry_up": 0.992359, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.256777, "annualized_volatility": 1.011406, "from_high_reference": -0.47181, "from_low_reference": 1.588693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.120381, "fair_value_reference": 18.411072, "structural_low": 15.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052294, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.053517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116976, "worst_return": -0.03758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016405, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.326886, "worst_return": -0.005732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031574, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.607006, "worst_return": -0.047777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.131469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219524, "worst_return": -0.277343, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.26151, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.202172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078844, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", 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31.299999, "volume": 178467738, "typical_volume": 192640285.35, "trend": 32.946047, "fair_value": 18.191246, "relative_strength": 28.179566, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.348551, "energy": 20.423421, "activity_lines": [ 40.240666, 45.891511, 44.898649, 39.948452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.92, "volume": 152625540, "typical_volume": 191227371.05, "trend": 33.423047, "fair_value": 18.273001, "relative_strength": 20.68294, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.452575, "energy": 33.079298, "activity_lines": [ 34.900666, 42.633202, 43.880261, 39.753224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.630001, "volume": 265588426, "typical_volume": 193202749.35, "trend": 34.120381, "fair_value": 18.411072, "relative_strength": 41.590512, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.207958, "energy": 36.806464, "activity_lines": [ 34.089333, 40.963712, 43.468016, 39.960124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }