{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccf73d36-c192-4b3a-ad6b-bfbdb3eed3c0", "symbol": "000886", "name": "Hainan Expressway Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.144, "architecture_energy": 38.331, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.886, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.81, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.66, "downward_expansion": 65.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.489333, 4.398182, 4.621286, 4.943161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.53, "trend_reference": 5.403, "distance_from_trend": -0.161577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.544439, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.658537, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.287736, "excess_performance": -0.295136, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70270377, "relative_activity": 1.122031, "balance": 0.568775, "dry_up": 1.366825, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067414, "annualized_volatility": 0.216301, "from_high_reference": -0.452899, "from_low_reference": 0.129676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.403, "fair_value_reference": 5.544439, "structural_low": 4.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005168, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.009067, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.283784, "worst_return": -0.146138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.02799, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.001033, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.535545, "worst_return": -0.278481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142241, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.098495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.725232, "worst_return": -0.122768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 62768942.3, "trend": 5.571667, "fair_value": 5.550358, "relative_strength": -29.967002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.045845, "energy": 61.375577, "activity_lines": [ 4.336, 4.347455, 4.707048, 5.067828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.59, "volume": 65324419, "typical_volume": 62748978.6, "trend": 5.480667, "fair_value": 5.548001, "relative_strength": -24.751382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.258943, "energy": 49.584792, "activity_lines": [ 4.439333, 4.373818, 4.663429, 5.004495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.53, "volume": 70270377, "typical_volume": 62627834.45, "trend": 5.403, "fair_value": 5.544439, "relative_strength": -28.658537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.143531, "energy": 38.330889, "activity_lines": [ 4.489333, 4.398182, 4.621286, 4.943161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }