{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccf96bfe-1d97-416d-9fbb-2438d7cc1ef9", "symbol": "TPHD", "name": "TIMOTHY PLAN HIGH DIVIDEND STOCK ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.681, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.696, "architecture_energy": 61.376, "architecture_maturity": 19.264, "architecture_confidence": 69.106, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.96, "rotation_up": 71.61, "upward_expansion": 86.45, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 12.74, "downward_expansion": 10.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.306717, 42.991332, 42.432961, 42.140059 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.46, "trend_reference": 41.756285, "distance_from_trend": 0.040801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.12074, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203187, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.786805, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043763, "excess_performance": -0.081862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040801, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03634, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030778, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025126, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043763, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.308296, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256917, "relative_activity": 2.174701, "balance": 2.308296, "dry_up": 1.139727, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020813, "annualized_volatility": 0.099493, "from_high_reference": -0.017327, "from_low_reference": 0.173258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.756285, "fair_value_reference": 36.12074, "structural_low": 40.005492, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.006128, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.00614, "regime_survival": 0.685714, "best_return": 0.061643, "worst_return": -0.070216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02157, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.026979, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.067622, "worst_return": -0.037729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042214, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032916, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101036, "worst_return": 0.017169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 43.586803, "volume": 63650, "typical_volume": 110610.95, "trend": 41.453432, "fair_value": 35.954442, "relative_strength": 0.765402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.756485, "energy": 76.907518, "activity_lines": [ 43.120029, 42.661948, 42.153399, 41.91266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.127154, "volume": 127109, "typical_volume": 110882.25, "trend": 41.609026, "fair_value": 36.036448, "relative_strength": -1.277194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.231325, "energy": 63.036192, "activity_lines": [ 43.17797, 42.8092, 42.282396, 42.020642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.46, "volume": 256917, "typical_volume": 118139.0, "trend": 41.756285, "fair_value": 36.12074, "relative_strength": -3.786805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.69625, "energy": 61.376004, "activity_lines": [ 43.306717, 42.991332, 42.432961, 42.140059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }