{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ccfd384b-d11e-4b29-bad1-7928bfa762a9", "symbol": "5880", "name": "Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.642, "architecture_energy": 61.468, "architecture_maturity": 13.181, "architecture_confidence": 59.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 72.13, "upward_expansion": 83.81, "deceleration": 55.17, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 10.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.713684, 24.337763, 23.506704, 23.111016 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 22.728127, "distance_from_trend": 0.06476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.327841, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083849, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.680315, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.082858, "excess_performance": -0.358514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112079, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112702, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.261833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133129024, "relative_activity": 1.239093, "balance": 2.261833, "dry_up": 1.306098, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038029, "annualized_volatility": 0.169204, "from_high_reference": -0.073794, "from_low_reference": 0.13568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.728127, "fair_value_reference": 22.327841, "structural_low": 21.308813, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.010507, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.001456, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.106343, "worst_return": -0.110708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00446, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.035562, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.222472, "worst_return": -0.097054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018347, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.074853, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.329546, "worst_return": -0.050817, 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"fair_value": 22.283162, "relative_strength": -23.520608, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.790094, "energy": 87.160379, "activity_lines": [ 23.888548, 23.463317, 22.84122, 22.645369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.080853, "volume": 209060433, "typical_volume": 102676178.15, "trend": 22.619155, "fair_value": 22.30809, "relative_strength": -15.8593, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.210925, "energy": 96.605298, "activity_lines": [ 24.672864, 24.024279, 23.18343, 22.875005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.75791, "volume": 126199558, "typical_volume": 104827382.95, "trend": 22.680577, "fair_value": 22.319502, "relative_strength": -21.131511, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.132125, "energy": 81.707882, "activity_lines": [ 24.833507, 24.260518, 23.378946, 23.012989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 133129024, "typical_volume": 107440742.85, "trend": 22.728127, "fair_value": 22.327841, "relative_strength": -24.680315, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.642408, "energy": 61.468027, "activity_lines": [ 24.713684, 24.337763, 23.506704, 23.111016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }