{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd02907c-aca1-44c1-8565-8dfb98a64c01", "symbol": "TON", "name": "Titon Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.659, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.821, "architecture_energy": 9.402, "architecture_maturity": 14.497, "architecture_confidence": 63.44, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.0, "rotation_up": 28.06, "upward_expansion": 32.05, "deceleration": 35.34, "rotation_down": 22.09, "downward_expansion": 40.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.815, 0.808636, 0.790952, 0.795914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.825, "trend_reference": 0.82, "distance_from_trend": 0.006098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.797165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034917, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.891993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131579, "excess_performance": -0.182814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006098, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070769, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92726, "relative_activity": 3.137251, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.387785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084289, "annualized_volatility": 0.195578, "from_high_reference": -0.199029, "from_low_reference": 0.178571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.82, "fair_value_reference": 0.797165, "structural_low": 0.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021325, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058114, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.184211, "worst_return": -0.23913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.112941, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.120146, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.217105, "worst_return": -0.210318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039521, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.217105, "worst_return": -0.306658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.485091, "energy": 14.302614, "activity_lines": [ 0.8, 0.786364, 0.777143, 0.803226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.8, "volume": 6047, "typical_volume": 24578.65, "trend": 0.836667, "fair_value": 0.796717, "relative_strength": -13.130548, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.49739, "energy": 11.848601, "activity_lines": [ 0.8, 0.790909, 0.777857, 0.800591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8, "volume": 22687, "typical_volume": 24288.65, "trend": 0.8325, "fair_value": 0.796749, "relative_strength": -13.508689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.636427, "energy": 10.117057, "activity_lines": [ 0.8, 0.794545, 0.779286, 0.798226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8, "volume": 17821, "typical_volume": 24617.45, "trend": 0.828333, "fair_value": 0.796781, "relative_strength": -14.145418, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.746473, "energy": 9.011334, "activity_lines": [ 0.8, 0.797273, 0.78131, 0.796129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.825, "volume": 30838, "typical_volume": 26112.05, "trend": 0.825, "fair_value": 0.796973, "relative_strength": -12.082447, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.948836, "energy": 7.725122, "activity_lines": [ 0.808333, 0.803636, 0.786071, 0.795914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.825, "volume": 92726, "typical_volume": 29556.45, "trend": 0.82, "fair_value": 0.797165, "relative_strength": -11.891993, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.820972, "energy": 9.401731, "activity_lines": [ 0.815, 0.808636, 0.790952, 0.795914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }