{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd09b22f-b3c3-4eee-8ffe-dcda4895ddb7", "symbol": "GHM", "name": "GOLDHORSE CDI 1:1 [GHM]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.1, "architecture_energy": 10.832, "architecture_maturity": 46.186, "architecture_confidence": 55.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.65, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 19.82, "deceleration": 42.61, "rotation_down": 27.55, "downward_expansion": 58.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.458, 0.446636, 0.450857, 0.475226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.545, "trend_reference": 0.528333, "distance_from_trend": 0.031546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.494826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.515737, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215827, "excess_performance": -0.279533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031546, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008634, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193621, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3512032, "relative_activity": 3.387096, "balance": 1.193621, "dry_up": 1.564448, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115032, "annualized_volatility": 0.693545, "from_high_reference": -0.404372, "from_low_reference": 0.443709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.528333, "fair_value_reference": 0.494826, "structural_low": 0.3775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.012048, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012972, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.012048, "worst_return": -0.012048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.313253, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 0.24, "volume": 3609399, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 0.24, "volume": 107875, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.802889, "energy": 41.607268, "activity_lines": [ 0.420667, 0.429182, 0.446095, 0.482667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.42, "volume": 1507973, "typical_volume": 1018894.1, "trend": 0.5345, "fair_value": 0.494235, "relative_strength": -30.36333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.086605, "energy": 41.836721, "activity_lines": [ 0.418667, 0.426273, 0.442095, 0.474548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.545, "volume": 3512032, "typical_volume": 1036885.75, "trend": 0.528333, "fair_value": 0.494826, "relative_strength": -12.515737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.099744, "energy": 10.83226, "activity_lines": [ 0.458, 0.446636, 0.450857, 0.475226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }