{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd0a4a7f-d630-40f3-a1c1-e56df1e35834", "symbol": "QUB", "name": "Qube Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.021, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.197, "architecture_energy": 69.056, "architecture_maturity": 17.092, "architecture_confidence": 55.773, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.34, "rotation_up": 79.87, "upward_expansion": 84.69, "deceleration": 64.75, "rotation_down": 13.33, "downward_expansion": 16.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.0869, 4.981492, 4.961273, 4.95266 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.11, "trend_reference": 4.920893, "distance_from_trend": 0.038429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.882455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.928672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.089696, "excess_performance": 0.02599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039287, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.103805, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.103805, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012612, "annualized_volatility": 0.146078, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.299702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.920893, "fair_value_reference": 3.882455, "structural_low": 4.699276, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078292, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.13879, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141241, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13879, "worst_return": 0.13879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044383, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044383, "worst_return": 0.044383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.067058, "positive_rate": 1.0, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.187072, "energy": 49.256868, "activity_lines": [ 4.972643, 4.90802, 4.930031, 4.925907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24405259.5, "trend": 4.908521, "fair_value": 3.866643, "relative_strength": 7.516499, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.899605, "energy": 62.199599, "activity_lines": [ 5.041321, 4.945665, 4.946033, 4.939662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22842750.45, "trend": 4.920893, "fair_value": 3.882455, "relative_strength": 3.928672, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.197167, "energy": 69.055623, "activity_lines": [ 5.0869, 4.981492, 4.961273, 4.95266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }