{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd0b520a-8e49-429a-a72d-674cb597cdd0", "symbol": "UA", "name": "Under Armour Inc C", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.269, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.371, "architecture_energy": 18.817, "architecture_maturity": 16.573, "architecture_confidence": 52.052, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.38, "rotation_up": 48.32, "upward_expansion": 47.58, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 10.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.490667, 6.446727, 6.185048, 6.170516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.93, "trend_reference": 6.216667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.544038, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.683239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192098, "excess_performance": -0.317723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093832, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.267153, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19043090, "relative_activity": 1.308425, "balance": 1.267153, "dry_up": 0.940628, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130951, "annualized_volatility": 0.571256, "from_high_reference": -0.250003, "from_low_reference": 0.501266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.216667, "fair_value_reference": 6.544038, "structural_low": 4.665, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.004505, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.060297, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.224956, "worst_return": -0.191589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029459, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107206, "worst_return": -0.285047, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.173865, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.263821, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.279438, "worst_return": -0.201935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035826, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.224956, "active": 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6.072667, "fair_value": 6.559167, "relative_strength": 20.683483, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.094398, "energy": 60.124222, "activity_lines": [ 6.683333, 6.284364, 6.066048, 6.115505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.86, "volume": 11439236, "typical_volume": 14509593.1, "trend": 6.153667, "fair_value": 6.55641, "relative_strength": 14.854119, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.041652, "energy": 57.749551, "activity_lines": [ 6.817333, 6.446545, 6.148762, 6.166301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.49, "volume": 10196853, "typical_volume": 14227724.2, "trend": 6.201, "fair_value": 6.551859, "relative_strength": 7.834854, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.926587, "energy": 50.989417, "activity_lines": [ 6.762, 6.507455, 6.194095, 6.188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.93, "volume": 19043090, "typical_volume": 14554204.5, "trend": 6.216667, "fair_value": 6.544038, "relative_strength": -4.683239, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.371449, "energy": 18.817496, "activity_lines": [ 6.490667, 6.446727, 6.185048, 6.170516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }