{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd16b473-0635-4360-a6e5-0e625a23bbcb", "symbol": "PRTA", "name": "Prothena Corporation plc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.125, "architecture_energy": 54.173, "architecture_maturity": 7.681, "architecture_confidence": 91.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 12.35, "upward_expansion": 11.48, "deceleration": 38.71, "rotation_down": 62.07, "downward_expansion": 84.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.606, 8.860909, 9.259905, 9.374022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.76, "trend_reference": 9.429667, "distance_from_trend": -0.071017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.137404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.51702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.345949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016835, "excess_performance": -0.204289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.51702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2285974, "relative_activity": 0.892616, "balance": 0.986392, "dry_up": 1.094846, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123683, "annualized_volatility": 0.454595, "from_high_reference": -0.257627, "from_low_reference": 0.186156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.429667, "fair_value_reference": 18.137404, "structural_low": 7.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.014899, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.014245, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.44418, "worst_return": -0.366208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.175958, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117292, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.785964, "worst_return": -0.373777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.225719, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.316888, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.703398, "worst_return": -0.495463, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.141879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", 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"trend": 9.506333, "fair_value": 19.194135, "relative_strength": -17.186326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.559582, "energy": 11.065101, "activity_lines": [ 9.22, 9.224909, 9.570619, 9.554688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.75, "volume": 2848868, "typical_volume": 2617976.55, "trend": 9.48, "fair_value": 18.82266, "relative_strength": -15.071452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.701984, "energy": 20.036614, "activity_lines": [ 9.034, 9.118545, 9.482333, 9.505892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.12, "volume": 3195900, "typical_volume": 2613893.35, "trend": 9.444, "fair_value": 18.479391, "relative_strength": -21.563155, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.337054, "energy": 54.451135, "activity_lines": [ 8.65, 8.916, 9.338048, 9.418151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.76, "volume": 2285974, "typical_volume": 2560982.55, "trend": 9.429667, "fair_value": 18.137404, "relative_strength": -19.345949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.124643, "energy": 54.173132, "activity_lines": [ 8.606, 8.860909, 9.259905, 9.374022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }