{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd1b8c41-486d-4e17-a149-e841b33a0f10", "symbol": "SMCGLOBAL", "name": "SMC Global Securities Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.403, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.653, "architecture_energy": 63.672, "architecture_maturity": 20.302, "architecture_confidence": 72.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.53, "rotation_up": 69.41, "upward_expansion": 61.34, "deceleration": 25.51, "rotation_down": 17.27, "downward_expansion": 22.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.988001, 76.391503, 71.765819, 70.402794 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 79.540001, "trend_reference": 70.46595, "distance_from_trend": 0.128772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.774725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.508626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046073, "excess_performance": -0.002364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176643, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.135086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046073, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.711848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3480318, "relative_activity": 1.49245, "balance": 1.711848, "dry_up": 1.815253, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069015, "annualized_volatility": 0.458293, "from_high_reference": -0.148902, "from_low_reference": 0.473295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.46595, "fair_value_reference": 64.774725, "structural_low": 53.987838, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.030997, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059403, "worst_return": -0.096331, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.155106, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.107515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.068977, "worst_return": -0.241236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021563, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.139511, "worst_return": -0.135712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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63.642058, "relative_strength": 9.934623, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.264526, "energy": 57.463519, "activity_lines": [ 72.378001, 69.257023, 67.036225, 68.288588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 81.669998, "volume": 5821119, "typical_volume": 2417881.4, "trend": 71.382102, "fair_value": 63.941937, "relative_strength": 18.634178, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.840538, "energy": 70.900605, "activity_lines": [ 75.568667, 71.881061, 68.493972, 68.949956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.459999, "volume": 2197191, "typical_volume": 2393223.8, "trend": 71.007431, "fair_value": 64.199113, "relative_strength": 12.028212, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.415714, "energy": 59.221295, "activity_lines": [ 76.020667, 73.071938, 69.3343, 69.213046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.580002, "volume": 5433682, "typical_volume": 2255789.4, "trend": 70.671466, "fair_value": 64.493528, "relative_strength": 16.223282, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.040745, "energy": 67.286847, "activity_lines": [ 77.954667, 74.994808, 70.641695, 69.830631 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.540001, "volume": 3480318, "typical_volume": 2331949.3, "trend": 70.46595, "fair_value": 64.774725, "relative_strength": 13.508626, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.652994, "energy": 63.672176, "activity_lines": [ 78.988001, 76.391503, 71.765819, 70.402794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }