{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd1c42af-d49e-49ba-abfb-5eedb2406838", "symbol": "CALX", "name": "Calix Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.155, "architecture_energy": 41.77, "architecture_maturity": 80.83, "architecture_confidence": 92.319, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 25.89, "upward_expansion": 6.01, "deceleration": 53.47, "rotation_down": 42.64, "downward_expansion": 74.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.344667, 37.632727, 38.938381, 41.333355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.98, "trend_reference": 44.756667, "distance_from_trend": -0.151411, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.691859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.550131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285822, "excess_performance": -0.411447, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151411, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285822, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.450397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4657042, "relative_activity": 0.847959, "balance": 0.450397, "dry_up": 1.322852, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095261, "annualized_volatility": 0.375622, "from_high_reference": -0.466723, "from_low_reference": 0.108581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.756667, "fair_value_reference": 42.691859, "structural_low": 34.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.005851, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.008331, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.45858, "worst_return": -0.173151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.080091, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.121163, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.760303, "worst_return": -0.29457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.143365, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.716112, "worst_return": -0.285822, "sufficient": true 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.568792, "energy": 36.250436, "activity_lines": [ 38.786, 38.508909, 40.579952, 43.111054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.0, "volume": 12051516, "typical_volume": 5396710.75, "trend": 45.805, "fair_value": 42.75891, "relative_strength": -35.493471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.546841, "energy": 43.601796, "activity_lines": [ 38.017333, 38.036545, 39.903857, 42.439183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.9, "volume": 6162740, "typical_volume": 5545762.2, "trend": 45.215333, "fair_value": 42.711538, "relative_strength": -35.663962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.316955, "energy": 45.256769, "activity_lines": [ 37.345333, 37.615273, 39.287143, 41.800151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.98, "volume": 4657042, "typical_volume": 5492059.6, "trend": 44.756667, "fair_value": 42.691859, "relative_strength": -33.550131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.155271, "energy": 41.769835, "activity_lines": [ 37.344667, 37.632727, 38.938381, 41.333355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }