{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd26671b-f2b5-401c-804f-8cd9e9f710ba", "symbol": "SCHH", "name": "SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR US REIT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.563, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.481, "architecture_energy": 46.301, "architecture_maturity": 38.474, "architecture_confidence": 69.128, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.95, "rotation_up": 54.9, "upward_expansion": 77.05, "deceleration": 61.07, "rotation_down": 19.73, "downward_expansion": 6.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 24.227328, 23.863578, 23.478535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.11, "trend_reference": 22.972335, "distance_from_trend": 0.049523, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.411601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.181191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.754823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.103326, "excess_performance": -0.022299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049523, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.181191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30573339, "relative_activity": 0.942077, "balance": 1.145214, "dry_up": 0.902355, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032869, "annualized_volatility": 0.17033, "from_high_reference": -0.036756, "from_low_reference": 0.195037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.972335, "fair_value_reference": 20.411601, "structural_low": 21.0501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.000949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009195, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.084903, "worst_return": -0.109338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020023, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011291, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090671, "worst_return": -0.052502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022859, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002568, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.080036, "worst_return": -0.150891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.268421, 22.921036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.89, "volume": 33020437, "typical_volume": 36972337.45, "trend": 22.485364, "fair_value": 20.246878, "relative_strength": -1.4373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.956964, "energy": 44.503278, "activity_lines": [ 23.921505, 23.746754, 23.359721, 23.018351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.61, "volume": 31678320, "typical_volume": 36846276.45, "trend": 22.6194, "fair_value": 20.286504, "relative_strength": 3.15459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.793191, "energy": 65.392439, "activity_lines": [ 24.165069, 23.932322, 23.513914, 23.155424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.86, "volume": 24621719, "typical_volume": 35643692.0, "trend": 22.753149, "fair_value": 20.329496, "relative_strength": 4.813545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.140222, "energy": 71.87499, "activity_lines": [ 24.451333, 24.140707, 23.683804, 23.299979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.28, "volume": 30263555, "typical_volume": 35060422.2, "trend": 22.869222, "fair_value": 20.371299, "relative_strength": 1.299023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.235061, "energy": 55.21738, "activity_lines": [ 24.434667, 24.206346, 23.786927, 23.398485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.11, "volume": 30573339, "typical_volume": 32453106.95, "trend": 22.972335, "fair_value": 20.411601, "relative_strength": -2.754823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.480526, "energy": 46.301344, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 24.227328, 23.863578, 23.478535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }