{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd26d509-c171-47be-a1e8-ab89a4360a82", "symbol": "ASPI", "name": "ASP Isotopes Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.725, "architecture_energy": 66.617, "architecture_maturity": 20.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.964, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.16, "rotation_up": 8.6, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 74.65, "downward_expansion": 89.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.168, 4.775, 5.305738, 5.332011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.43, "trend_reference": 5.5375, "distance_from_trend": -0.2, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.006484, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.660199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238177, "excess_performance": -0.425631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074306, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679859, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20251344, "relative_activity": 0.889717, "balance": 0.679859, "dry_up": 0.927106, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.284654, "annualized_volatility": 0.8707, "from_high_reference": -0.694272, "from_low_reference": 0.262108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.5375, "fair_value_reference": 5.006484, "structural_low": 3.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.200893, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.090266, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.87541, "worst_return": -0.325581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.70344, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.430845, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.445498, "worst_return": -0.306743, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.844015, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.674892, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.507109, "worst_return": 0.180921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.17865, "energy": 26.172465, "activity_lines": [ 6.694667, 6.456545, 5.884619, 5.839269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.63, "volume": 17985743, "typical_volume": 23400212.55, "trend": 5.862, "fair_value": 4.906958, "relative_strength": -32.535386, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.687585, "energy": 9.279854, "activity_lines": [ 6.278667, 6.359818, 5.892548, 5.822344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.01, "volume": 16207982, "typical_volume": 23602868.9, "trend": 5.831, "fair_value": 4.935106, "relative_strength": -40.375829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.01372, "energy": 11.276974, "activity_lines": [ 5.799333, 6.145273, 5.839476, 5.767376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.875, "volume": 25827887, "typical_volume": 24109930.35, "trend": 5.7575, "fair_value": 4.955522, "relative_strength": -50.804748, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.894384, "energy": 37.546416, "activity_lines": [ 5.055, 5.726909, 5.679214, 5.641183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.87, "volume": 17387595, "typical_volume": 23961421.55, "trend": 5.6945, "fair_value": 4.972574, "relative_strength": -48.953448, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.317425, "energy": 52.1947, "activity_lines": [ 4.487333, 5.335, 5.525452, 5.519409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 20942686, "typical_volume": 23198959.35, "trend": 5.640167, "fair_value": 4.987253, "relative_strength": -46.565509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.552894, "energy": 68.552801, "activity_lines": [ 4.183667, 5.001818, 5.392071, 5.410086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.43, "volume": 20251344, "typical_volume": 22761563.65, "trend": 5.5375, "fair_value": 5.006484, "relative_strength": -42.660199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.724827, "energy": 66.616517, "activity_lines": [ 4.168, 4.775, 5.305738, 5.332011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }