{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd33d619-8f5c-4cd6-885a-249caf04a4f0", "symbol": "STEC", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS ETF (DE) EUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.103, "architecture_energy": 29.436, "architecture_maturity": 70.834, "architecture_confidence": 91.939, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.29, "rotation_up": 31.35, "upward_expansion": 59.46, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 20.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.617533, 7.675564, 7.557795, 7.312796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.914, "trend_reference": 7.0477, "distance_from_trend": 0.12292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.285506, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259087, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.978489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.22831, "excess_performance": 0.111647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068215, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049785, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.201612, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58148, "relative_activity": 0.822923, "balance": 2.201612, "dry_up": 1.159201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043176, "annualized_volatility": 0.220274, "from_high_reference": -0.022601, "from_low_reference": 0.356275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.0477, "fair_value_reference": 6.285506, "structural_low": 5.9227, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053245, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019297, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.122602, "worst_return": -0.115559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04646, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01164, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.050149, "worst_return": -0.018537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098939, "worst_return": -0.011366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.046426, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.745703, "energy": 80.318801, "activity_lines": [ 7.882867, 7.751655, 7.328346, 7.104915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.691, "volume": 90738, "typical_volume": 72035.8, "trend": 6.90617, "fair_value": 6.227842, "relative_strength": 4.545346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.981238, "energy": 60.035373, "activity_lines": [ 7.8162, 7.773509, 7.393788, 7.158397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.418, "volume": 56589, "typical_volume": 71547.35, "trend": 6.943547, "fair_value": 6.241331, "relative_strength": 0.203364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.322525, "energy": 41.423623, "activity_lines": [ 7.666333, 7.730327, 7.427831, 7.191419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.462, "volume": 114741, "typical_volume": 65697.05, "trend": 6.982047, "fair_value": 6.253982, "relative_strength": 0.974251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.819755, "energy": 31.312005, "activity_lines": [ 7.570933, 7.689364, 7.462356, 7.224867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.445, "volume": 98160, "typical_volume": 69136.85, "trend": 7.01406, "fair_value": 6.267993, "relative_strength": -0.074074, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.629326, "energy": 26.968496, "activity_lines": [ 7.506533, 7.638873, 7.490069, 7.254735 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.914, "volume": 58148, "typical_volume": 70660.3, "trend": 7.0477, "fair_value": 6.285506, "relative_strength": 4.978489, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.102593, "energy": 29.435763, "activity_lines": [ 7.617533, 7.675564, 7.557795, 7.312796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }