{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd365247-da25-49d4-bd5c-a7df9956fde4", "symbol": "CEMI", "name": "CIBC MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.579, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.513, "architecture_energy": 21.671, "architecture_maturity": 65.649, "architecture_confidence": 87.539, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.74, "rotation_up": 21.96, "upward_expansion": 54.32, "deceleration": 91.09, "rotation_down": 32.92, "downward_expansion": 17.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.618, 29.010818, 28.885881, 28.176548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.870001, "trend_reference": 27.2845, "distance_from_trend": 0.05811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.423331, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413579, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.992139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.120295, "excess_performance": -0.000126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07313, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413579, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009921, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120295, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.023004, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2800, "relative_activity": 0.194242, "balance": 2.023004, "dry_up": 1.415193, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052756, "annualized_volatility": 0.294183, "from_high_reference": -0.090709, "from_low_reference": 0.368874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.2845, "fair_value_reference": 20.423331, "structural_low": 23.559999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037857, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.042208, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.141545, "worst_return": -0.029365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05343, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.023853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260125, "worst_return": -0.001203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294083, "worst_return": -0.015033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"trend": 26.67791, "fair_value": 20.108132, "relative_strength": 8.383314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.998514, "energy": 53.900436, "activity_lines": [ 29.931333, 29.692454, 28.621357, 27.787532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.07, "volume": 36600, "typical_volume": 15595.0, "trend": 26.840003, "fair_value": 20.186593, "relative_strength": 1.582372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.735605, "energy": 29.598721, "activity_lines": [ 29.256333, 29.443636, 28.672, 27.877344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.219999, "volume": 17500, "typical_volume": 14090.0, "trend": 27.0025, "fair_value": 20.261271, "relative_strength": 1.743651, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.123212, "energy": 23.822114, "activity_lines": [ 28.745999, 29.241363, 28.7315, 27.966376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.540001, "volume": 24700, "typical_volume": 14850.0, "trend": 27.149833, "fair_value": 20.340223, "relative_strength": 3.201289, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.943802, "energy": 20.684229, "activity_lines": [ 28.572333, 29.096, 28.803047, 28.06557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.870001, "volume": 2800, "typical_volume": 14415.0, "trend": 27.2845, "fair_value": 20.423331, "relative_strength": 0.992139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.512921, "energy": 21.671209, "activity_lines": [ 28.618, 29.010818, 28.885881, 28.176548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }