{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd37c741-8b33-4b43-b552-7cb8b4a49479", "symbol": "E1CO34", "name": "Ecopetrol S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.558, "architecture_energy": 69.478, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 72.08, "upward_expansion": 88.95, "deceleration": 45.52, "rotation_down": 14.4, "downward_expansion": 13.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.727333, 41.510909, 39.375133, 37.897188 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.310001, "trend_reference": 35.844463, "distance_from_trend": 0.264073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.466166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.779223, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 42.195829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.484958, "excess_performance": 0.542006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.264073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164581, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.779223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.467239, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.421958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.440389, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.484958, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.60705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4863, "relative_activity": 0.275779, "balance": 3.60705, "dry_up": 0.480118, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077789, "annualized_volatility": 0.452081, "from_high_reference": -0.015, "from_low_reference": 1.0628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.844463, "fair_value_reference": 25.466166, "structural_low": 28.64083, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.012708, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.041776, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.283431, "worst_return": -0.19989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.032126, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.063008, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.29436, "worst_return": -0.248784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082237, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007547, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.372628, "worst_return": -0.29407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 14826, "typical_volume": 19589.5, "trend": 34.723321, "fair_value": 25.133205, "relative_strength": 28.750094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.590606, "energy": 40.879333, "activity_lines": [ 40.037333, 39.949636, 38.067093, 36.730954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.759998, "volume": 8180, "typical_volume": 18325.45, "trend": 35.270042, "fair_value": 25.292692, "relative_strength": 31.418552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.146214, "energy": 48.169366, "activity_lines": [ 41.114666, 40.570545, 38.619613, 37.249449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.310001, "volume": 4863, "typical_volume": 17633.7, "trend": 35.844463, "fair_value": 25.466166, "relative_strength": 42.195829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.558018, "energy": 69.477773, "activity_lines": [ 42.727333, 41.510909, 39.375133, 37.897188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }