{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd48aebe-ed48-46d0-956d-6547e30d7eda", "symbol": "002901", "name": "Double Medical Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 1.097, "architecture_energy": 12.569, "architecture_maturity": 8.094, "architecture_confidence": 61.539, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.12, "rotation_up": 37.51, "upward_expansion": 38.2, "deceleration": 28.32, "rotation_down": 18.45, "downward_expansion": 41.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.012, 43.657752, 42.857847, 43.241203 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 44.549999, "trend_reference": 44.497772, "distance_from_trend": 0.001174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.279093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19504, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.669467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128692, "excess_performance": -0.136091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19504, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043753, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106695, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165698, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384886, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9470407, "relative_activity": 1.173286, "balance": 0.384886, "dry_up": 1.635847, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056795, "annualized_volatility": 0.239908, "from_high_reference": -0.330075, "from_low_reference": 0.132946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.497772, "fair_value_reference": 37.279093, "structural_low": 39.322259, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.083039, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.043987, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.140653, "worst_return": -0.146923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.182281, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10385, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.103751, "worst_return": -0.3341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.143981, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.099928, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072714, "worst_return": -0.286059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.252673, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015588, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.231706, "worst_return": -0.253961, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.141453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191257, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.194202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097415, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003356, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 31.367344, "volume": 6336637, "typical_volume": 9310734.05, "trend": 34.132519, "fair_value": 50.316838, "relative_strength": -7.986021, "stage": 4, 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43.489946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.759998, "volume": 15776006, "typical_volume": 6814127.35, "trend": 45.041438, "fair_value": 36.931996, "relative_strength": -15.876394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.831133, "energy": 12.5566, "activity_lines": [ 43.46088, 42.387616, 42.375001, 43.464176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.700001, "volume": 20145606, "typical_volume": 7553336.05, "trend": 44.973105, "fair_value": 37.02373, "relative_strength": -7.671892, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.539959, "energy": 16.970649, "activity_lines": [ 44.082259, 42.910287, 42.541129, 43.442148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.490002, "volume": 13980026, "typical_volume": 7810887.8, "trend": 44.789772, "fair_value": 37.109587, "relative_strength": -10.256372, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.339151, "energy": 19.365636, "activity_lines": [ 44.093787, 43.162048, 42.613353, 43.346463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.200001, "volume": 9220183, "typical_volume": 7909154.05, "trend": 44.591772, "fair_value": 37.190389, "relative_strength": -9.18345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.060504, "energy": 15.261259, "activity_lines": [ 43.890694, 43.305628, 42.667052, 43.243898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.549999, "volume": 9470407, "typical_volume": 8071695.75, "trend": 44.497772, "fair_value": 37.279093, "relative_strength": -10.669467, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.096686, "energy": 12.569168, "activity_lines": [ 44.012, 43.657752, 42.857847, 43.241203 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }