{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd4bcf5b-4671-40a4-a9f4-7905826a58ff", "symbol": "2712", "name": "FarGlory Hotel Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.842, "architecture_energy": 37.648, "architecture_maturity": 98.492, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.81, "rotation_up": 25.74, "upward_expansion": 4.93, "deceleration": 50.53, "rotation_down": 43.32, "downward_expansion": 75.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.703333, 14.769091, 15.111429, 15.395376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.45, "trend_reference": 15.898333, "distance_from_trend": -0.0911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.518547, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41065, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.115429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.17192, "excess_performance": -0.613292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41065, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.421154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333441, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33001, "relative_activity": 0.419522, "balance": 0.333441, "dry_up": 0.468137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052968, "annualized_volatility": 0.322595, "from_high_reference": -0.340183, "from_low_reference": 0.02847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.898333, "fair_value_reference": 24.518547, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.015423, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031969, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.231034, "worst_return": -0.185263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.054517, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.115854, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.050578, "worst_return": -0.193684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125522, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.22993, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.031111, "worst_return": -0.254335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -38.953172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.472661, "energy": 41.273717, "activity_lines": [ 14.786667, 14.864545, 15.267143, 15.578817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.85, "volume": 33100, "typical_volume": 85282.75, "trend": 16.015, "fair_value": 24.650584, "relative_strength": -39.424307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.659765, "energy": 35.131308, "activity_lines": [ 14.806667, 14.855455, 15.207143, 15.496344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.45, "volume": 33001, "typical_volume": 78663.35, "trend": 15.898333, "fair_value": 24.518547, "relative_strength": -42.115429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.841806, "energy": 37.647716, "activity_lines": [ 14.703333, 14.769091, 15.111429, 15.395376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }