{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd4d4b47-2a50-4331-a3ee-5c698e8a4412", "symbol": "NIOX", "name": "NIOX Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 82.356, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.702, "architecture_energy": 27.373, "architecture_maturity": 8.573, "architecture_confidence": 40.745, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.29, "rotation_up": 52.04, "upward_expansion": 44.75, "deceleration": 38.41, "rotation_down": 20.87, "downward_expansion": 12.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.612267, 0.600145, 0.596068, 0.595372 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.622, "trend_reference": 0.602621, "distance_from_trend": 0.032158, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.629763, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012327, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.672603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03325, "excess_performance": -0.084486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019649, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060515, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5022670, "relative_activity": 1.404946, "balance": 1.060515, "dry_up": 1.210892, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068204, "annualized_volatility": 0.347543, "from_high_reference": -0.177764, "from_low_reference": 0.185094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.602621, "fair_value_reference": 0.629763, "structural_low": 0.524853, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.008837, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000649, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166094, "worst_return": -0.061033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064462, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027666, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.119884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042921, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020979, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.287393, "worst_return": -0.13016, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.279683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186733, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", 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0.596219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.578, "volume": 2274923, "typical_volume": 3278497.35, "trend": 0.609406, "fair_value": 0.630287, "relative_strength": -15.705059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.933189, "energy": 26.123648, "activity_lines": [ 0.578133, 0.581516, 0.586545, 0.594002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.586, "volume": 5067852, "typical_volume": 3396853.65, "trend": 0.607038, "fair_value": 0.629962, "relative_strength": -14.825646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.038378, "energy": 21.865394, "activity_lines": [ 0.5808, 0.581537, 0.586352, 0.592492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.636, "volume": 4386199, "typical_volume": 3466008.65, "trend": 0.606142, "fair_value": 0.629898, "relative_strength": -8.333304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.230074, "energy": 8.882307, "activity_lines": [ 0.599733, 0.591055, 0.591147, 0.594361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.604, "volume": 2839001, "typical_volume": 3478733.1, "trend": 0.604179, "fair_value": 0.62977, "relative_strength": -13.495607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.039928, "energy": 13.47956, "activity_lines": [ 0.604, 0.594073, 0.592792, 0.594222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.622, "volume": 5022670, "typical_volume": 3574992.2, "trend": 0.602621, "fair_value": 0.629763, "relative_strength": -10.672603, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.701918, "energy": 27.37308, "activity_lines": [ 0.612267, 0.600145, 0.596068, 0.595372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }