{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd4f60fd-5b16-4895-862f-4d248c328ab8", "symbol": "CTEK", "name": "Global X CleanTech UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.166, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.348, "architecture_energy": 60.341, "architecture_maturity": 9.397, "architecture_confidence": 74.152, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.76, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 28.36, "deceleration": 49.52, "rotation_down": 69.42, "downward_expansion": 55.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.385467, 7.777545, 8.265886, 8.204759 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.534, "trend_reference": 8.079067, "distance_from_trend": -0.067467, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.171946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.200156, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003597, "excess_performance": -0.167295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067467, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045929, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220685, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224356, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003597, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.080104, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4627, "relative_activity": 1.621205, "balance": 2.080104, "dry_up": 0.920271, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086878, "annualized_volatility": 0.377315, "from_high_reference": -0.255386, "from_low_reference": 0.443295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.079067, "fair_value_reference": 6.171946, "structural_low": 6.613, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007369, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.012478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007369, "worst_return": 0.007369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.061826, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.109271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.061826, "worst_return": -0.061826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.122484, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.152857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.122484, "worst_return": -0.122484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.200216, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061434, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142203, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.352514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072127, 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"typical_volume": 5312.45, "trend": 8.020533, "fair_value": 6.208913, "relative_strength": -7.770782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.523838, "energy": 20.046261, "activity_lines": [ 8.329733, 8.728782, 8.625238, 8.372228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.894, "volume": 73, "typical_volume": 5149.4, "trend": 8.058067, "fair_value": 6.199856, "relative_strength": -5.51202, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.098362, "energy": 27.477762, "activity_lines": [ 8.129933, 8.5342, 8.582962, 8.364065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.232, "volume": 718, "typical_volume": 5012.8, "trend": 8.065367, "fair_value": 6.187869, "relative_strength": -13.380616, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.905639, "energy": 44.934272, "activity_lines": [ 7.766133, 8.239127, 8.475271, 8.31077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.959, "volume": 5088, "typical_volume": 5248.15, "trend": 8.0708, "fair_value": 6.176638, "relative_strength": -17.310956, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.321798, "energy": 63.159407, "activity_lines": [ 7.4398, 7.931182, 8.341929, 8.239391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.534, "volume": 4627, "typical_volume": 2854.05, "trend": 8.079067, "fair_value": 6.171946, "relative_strength": -13.200156, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.347953, "energy": 60.340739, "activity_lines": [ 7.385467, 7.777545, 8.265886, 8.204759 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }