{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd56e52c-8e25-4094-92ae-b9d85bf3a4f8", "symbol": "CMCS", "name": "Comcast Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.492, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.699, "architecture_energy": 28.249, "architecture_maturity": 72.566, "architecture_confidence": 71.165, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.58, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 27.27, "downward_expansion": 57.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.929866, 20.676871, 21.014436, 21.900808 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.889999, "trend_reference": 22.998709, "distance_from_trend": -0.048207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.423043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28048, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.803958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.158594, "excess_performance": -0.332841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28048, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.340718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5201, "relative_activity": 8.552166, "balance": 2.340718, "dry_up": 4.114528, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046669, "annualized_volatility": 0.265521, "from_high_reference": -0.232228, "from_low_reference": 0.158691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.998709, "fair_value_reference": 30.423043, "structural_low": 18.892, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.004747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012834, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.128976, "worst_return": -0.10418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.056355, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.077188, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.135432, "worst_return": -0.179944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057394, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094069, "worst_return": -0.148533, "sufficient": 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"volume": 1850, "typical_volume": 124.45, "trend": 23.413885, "fair_value": 30.828257, "relative_strength": -31.878939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.46545, "energy": 57.451636, "activity_lines": [ 20.382157, 20.470348, 21.602842, 22.522399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.959999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 124.45, "trend": 23.288517, "fair_value": 30.739487, "relative_strength": -28.29509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.909761, "energy": 45.144725, "activity_lines": [ 20.592248, 20.526094, 21.428412, 22.364083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.615999, "volume": 1662, "typical_volume": 207.55, "trend": 23.136851, "fair_value": 30.626378, "relative_strength": -32.999416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.978383, "energy": 53.12781, "activity_lines": [ 20.337029, 20.345468, 21.149353, 22.127147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.795, "volume": 3146, "typical_volume": 349.05, "trend": 23.056396, "fair_value": 30.523418, "relative_strength": -28.098321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.824454, "energy": 40.277375, "activity_lines": [ 20.475933, 20.408232, 21.01698, 21.976059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.889999, "volume": 5201, "typical_volume": 608.15, "trend": 22.998709, "fair_value": 30.423043, "relative_strength": -25.803958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.699016, "energy": 28.249223, "activity_lines": [ 20.929866, 20.676871, 21.014436, 21.900808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }