{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd5ada22-997d-4794-ad2b-c438fa8b7917", "symbol": "CSW", "name": "CSW Industrials, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 57.04, "architecture_energy": 67.217, "architecture_maturity": 52.233, "architecture_confidence": 76.106, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.66, "rotation_up": 71.85, "upward_expansion": 61.02, "deceleration": 23.76, "rotation_down": 16.79, "downward_expansion": 21.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 315.635721, 299.71918, 288.937024, 285.480399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 350.68, "trend_reference": 285.589263, "distance_from_trend": 0.227917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 276.338122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269025, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.402844, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.209424, "excess_performance": 0.083799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.227917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269025, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248678, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124028, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.261966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.209424, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.875389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1074671, "relative_activity": 1.514639, "balance": 1.875389, "dry_up": 1.307887, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078743, "annualized_volatility": 0.370234, "from_high_reference": -0.011361, "from_low_reference": 0.526427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 285.589263, "fair_value_reference": 276.338122, "structural_low": 248.327869, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.044295, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.011241, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.249412, "worst_return": -0.117485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052928, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.109548, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.16267, "worst_return": -0.092986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077757, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363318, "worst_return": -0.137529, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.341015, "energy": 6.42262, "activity_lines": [ 282.44432, 279.812333, 277.966155, 278.940611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 318.93, "volume": 981157, "typical_volume": 708669.0, "trend": 284.529855, "fair_value": 275.286929, "relative_strength": 6.016362, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.766576, "energy": 43.908056, "activity_lines": [ 294.967873, 287.251484, 282.088851, 281.212648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 350.68, "volume": 1074671, "typical_volume": 709522.7, "trend": 285.589263, "fair_value": 276.338122, "relative_strength": 12.402844, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.039912, "energy": 67.217145, "activity_lines": [ 315.635721, 299.71918, 288.937024, 285.480399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }