{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd6a8ec3-b146-4d00-a16e-a71051cd11de", "symbol": "GIQG", "name": "Guardian i3 Global Quality Growth Fund ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.29, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.514, "architecture_energy": 54.793, "architecture_maturity": 25.927, "architecture_confidence": 79.425, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.09, "rotation_up": 58.92, "upward_expansion": 80.35, "deceleration": 58.62, "rotation_down": 22.85, "downward_expansion": 7.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.631334, 35.36683, 35.152386, 34.584616 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.900002, "trend_reference": 33.937451, "distance_from_trend": 0.087294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.048193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.926295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.138186, "excess_performance": 0.017765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017707, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138186, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.549242, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14000, "relative_activity": 2.848423, "balance": 1.549242, "dry_up": 2.202442, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022067, "annualized_volatility": 0.160007, "from_high_reference": -0.00378, "from_low_reference": 0.232877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.937451, "fair_value_reference": 29.048193, "structural_low": 29.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013094, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002524, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.058386, "worst_return": -0.125576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.093147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.12196, "worst_return": 0.068202, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129354, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015809, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297005, "worst_return": 0.121189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.368292, "energy": 36.813132, "activity_lines": [ 34.989285, 35.11067, 34.358439, 33.91836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3710.0, "trend": 33.568784, "fair_value": 28.573409, "relative_strength": -4.724275, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.725438, "energy": 32.134674, "activity_lines": [ 34.997041, 35.138061, 34.502994, 34.026202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.5, "volume": 9900, "typical_volume": 3870.0, "trend": 33.627784, "fair_value": 28.667742, "relative_strength": -3.811012, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.951216, "energy": 41.737401, "activity_lines": [ 35.138521, 35.20447, 34.663215, 34.150797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.869999, "volume": 10600, "typical_volume": 3510.0, "trend": 33.707451, "fair_value": 28.758768, "relative_strength": -5.128439, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.932933, "energy": 32.390725, "activity_lines": [ 35.080393, 35.136261, 34.750246, 34.23094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.790001, "volume": 10100, "typical_volume": 3870.0, "trend": 33.759784, "fair_value": 28.847332, "relative_strength": -5.340141, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.265529, "energy": 32.660605, "activity_lines": [ 34.98, 35.056889, 34.819896, 34.300781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.09, "volume": 8600, "typical_volume": 4235.0, "trend": 33.830784, "fair_value": 28.941109, "relative_strength": -3.835024, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.448653, "energy": 30.873902, "activity_lines": [ 35.028, 35.045623, 34.907307, 34.386602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.900002, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 4915.0, "trend": 33.937451, "fair_value": 29.048193, "relative_strength": -1.926295, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.514408, "energy": 54.793013, "activity_lines": [ 35.631334, 35.36683, 35.152386, 34.584616 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }