{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd6c4123-e8f5-491d-88fe-0fb98976ad42", "symbol": "000723", "name": "Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.389, "architecture_energy": 55.509, "architecture_maturity": 95.484, "architecture_confidence": 81.735, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.25, "rotation_up": 28.61, "upward_expansion": 14.88, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 47.5, "downward_expansion": 76.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.504, 3.516727, 3.772762, 4.034108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.52, "trend_reference": 4.352667, "distance_from_trend": -0.1913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.14359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.980806, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.304348, "excess_performance": -0.311748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.919376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317079731, "relative_activity": 1.174131, "balance": 0.919376, "dry_up": 1.050884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079108, "annualized_volatility": 0.353196, "from_high_reference": -0.400341, "from_low_reference": 0.103448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.352667, "fair_value_reference": 5.14359, "structural_low": 3.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.030235, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.027096, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.306228, "worst_return": -0.146536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024523, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.037366, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.238462, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04193, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.147162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.271093, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03527, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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4.429667, "fair_value": 5.197051, "relative_strength": -25.206617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.687567, "energy": 83.41738, "activity_lines": [ 3.41, 3.576, 3.881238, 4.143247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.61, "volume": 232207391, "typical_volume": 310517100.2, "trend": 4.392, "fair_value": 5.170128, "relative_strength": -20.774254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.964859, "energy": 63.529005, "activity_lines": [ 3.476, 3.550364, 3.826857, 4.090366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.52, "volume": 317079731, "typical_volume": 270054869.65, "trend": 4.352667, "fair_value": 5.14359, "relative_strength": -25.980806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.389462, "energy": 55.509252, "activity_lines": [ 3.504, 3.516727, 3.772762, 4.034108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }