{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd73be67-9f09-4c2b-9656-a936fab87e24", "symbol": "SEUGB", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY ESG Enhanced E", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.436, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.566, "architecture_energy": 75.679, "architecture_maturity": 2.523, "architecture_confidence": 79.76, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.66, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 34.48, "rotation_down": 79.07, "downward_expansion": 91.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.287467, 10.319927, 10.333686, 10.336959 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.282, "trend_reference": 10.3496, "distance_from_trend": -0.006532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.247262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.005193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011346, "excess_performance": -0.182238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.451487, "dry_up": 0.216594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003815, "annualized_volatility": 0.034999, "from_high_reference": -0.023552, "from_low_reference": 0.009425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.3496, "fair_value_reference": 10.247262, "structural_low": 10.186, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004945, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018826, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.005638, "worst_return": 0.004253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.004666, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004666, "worst_return": 0.004666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007673, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004248, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016597, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009219, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005638, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006186, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-12", "close": 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10.349424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.442, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7517.75, "trend": 10.352333, "fair_value": 10.245197, "relative_strength": -14.333603, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.762228, "energy": 55.023093, "activity_lines": [ 10.392933, 10.379491, 10.353505, 10.355415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.336, "volume": 7684, "typical_volume": 7877.85, "trend": 10.353333, "fair_value": 10.245966, "relative_strength": -14.440057, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.884634, "energy": 17.266515, "activity_lines": [ 10.376267, 10.374182, 10.352076, 10.354361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.296, "volume": 3874, "typical_volume": 8071.55, "trend": 10.353333, "fair_value": 10.246387, "relative_strength": -13.152571, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.999078, "energy": 15.256157, "activity_lines": [ 10.349867, 10.361018, 10.347543, 10.350662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.282, "volume": 1974, "typical_volume": 7820.8, "trend": 10.352867, "fair_value": 10.246683, "relative_strength": -12.735952, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.970843, "energy": 33.986637, "activity_lines": [ 10.323467, 10.346218, 10.342571, 10.34606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.282, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7277.45, "trend": 10.3522, "fair_value": 10.246975, "relative_strength": -12.907736, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.317031, "energy": 56.133048, "activity_lines": [ 10.302667, 10.332582, 10.338048, 10.341488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.282, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 6749.95, "trend": 10.3496, "fair_value": 10.247262, "relative_strength": -15.005193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.566127, "energy": 75.678764, "activity_lines": [ 10.287467, 10.319927, 10.333686, 10.336959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }