{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd783c87-f5da-4c2a-a4b6-1e5e6610488b", "symbol": "VOW3", "name": "Volkswagen AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.911, "architecture_energy": 51.631, "architecture_maturity": 63.474, "architecture_confidence": 88.052, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.17, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 8.16, "deceleration": 58.73, "rotation_down": 54.65, "downward_expansion": 81.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.122667, 74.625559, 77.628109, 79.845186 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 76.32, "trend_reference": 83.726588, "distance_from_trend": -0.088462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.662325, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.268403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191942, "excess_performance": -0.256581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071601, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 70.339996, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.001308, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.01211, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.148053, "worst_return": -0.097917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.031087, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.048689, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.169909, "worst_return": -0.149645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.09789, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194223, "worst_return": -0.188613, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.546574, "energy": 85.87798, "activity_lines": [ 73.500003, 76.773577, 79.378101, 81.998654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.459999, "volume": 4048448, "typical_volume": 3531095.7, "trend": 85.265484, "fair_value": 87.92303, "relative_strength": -21.34669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.239643, "energy": 87.462246, "activity_lines": [ 72.421335, 75.378961, 78.4833, 81.052491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.66, "volume": 6075030, "typical_volume": 3549157.65, "trend": 84.427746, "fair_value": 87.783237, "relative_strength": -19.243716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.961105, "energy": 70.108093, "activity_lines": [ 73.008001, 74.765796, 77.954651, 80.368266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.32, "volume": 3299430, "typical_volume": 3385767.55, "trend": 83.726588, "fair_value": 87.662325, "relative_strength": -19.268403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.911497, "energy": 51.630985, "activity_lines": [ 74.122667, 74.625559, 77.628109, 79.845186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }