{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd7d353e-2240-43e1-b7f7-d3f82e8c9cee", "symbol": "AD-UN", "name": "Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.515, "architecture_energy": 74.558, "architecture_maturity": 42.986, "architecture_confidence": 78.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 75.77, "upward_expansion": 88.92, "deceleration": 51.91, "rotation_down": 15.82, "downward_expansion": 13.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.097334, 24.693154, 23.964801, 23.313046 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.690001, "trend_reference": 22.588132, "distance_from_trend": 0.137323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.104544, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.50194, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.545311, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.196743, "excess_performance": 0.076321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.50194, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095453, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.196743, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.749107, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 518800, "relative_activity": 1.772282, "balance": 1.749107, "dry_up": 1.635808, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029079, "annualized_volatility": 0.215142, "from_high_reference": -0.017591, "from_low_reference": 0.52288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.588132, "fair_value_reference": 17.104544, "structural_low": 19.168716, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.018878, "positive_rate": 0.542857, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": 0.006071, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.135746, "worst_return": -0.116155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02771, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.013352, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.22256, "worst_return": -0.157326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011654, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.00575, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.256437, "worst_return": -0.103528, "sufficient": true }, { 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23.766128, 23.047486, 22.577316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.129999, "volume": 617000, "typical_volume": 302085.0, "trend": 22.136578, "fair_value": 16.861111, "relative_strength": 11.180394, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.073359, "energy": 92.495268, "activity_lines": [ 24.579185, 24.075479, 23.308162, 22.780896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.790001, "volume": 402000, "typical_volume": 305320.0, "trend": 22.290841, "fair_value": 16.938895, "relative_strength": 9.188043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.849206, "energy": 87.242116, "activity_lines": [ 24.738699, 24.275327, 23.521397, 22.952084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.629999, "volume": 377600, "typical_volume": 288865.0, "trend": 22.434259, "fair_value": 17.018503, "relative_strength": 8.760863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.489309, "energy": 82.112816, "activity_lines": [ 24.777333, 24.402432, 23.704831, 23.102998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.690001, "volume": 518800, "typical_volume": 292730.0, "trend": 22.588132, "fair_value": 17.104544, "relative_strength": 9.545311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.514876, "energy": 74.558458, "activity_lines": [ 25.097334, 24.693154, 23.964801, 23.313046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }