{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd7e0a24-76c4-4863-bb1a-5a37fdda8573", "symbol": "ATG", "name": "Articore Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.473, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.954, "architecture_energy": 14.918, "architecture_maturity": 16.368, "architecture_confidence": 71.457, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.38, "rotation_up": 36.08, "upward_expansion": 32.28, "deceleration": 41.61, "rotation_down": 18.01, "downward_expansion": 40.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.285, 0.279091, 0.273595, 0.282806 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.285, "trend_reference": 0.297083, "distance_from_trend": -0.040673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.35226, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.544505, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.197183, "excess_performance": -0.260889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.197183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315379, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114943, "relative_activity": 0.13598, "balance": 0.315379, "dry_up": 0.332615, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103239, "annualized_volatility": 0.549163, "from_high_reference": -0.359551, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.297083, "fair_value_reference": 0.35226, "structural_low": 0.235, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.074074, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.07125, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.42, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.591398, "worst_return": -0.286957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.172815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075269, "worst_return": -0.588443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.594942, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.644886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.365591, "worst_return": -0.824292, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.27027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.407895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.422222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.268333, 0.263818, 0.271405, 0.284613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3, "volume": 520100, "typical_volume": 948781.85, "trend": 0.29425, "fair_value": 0.35899, "relative_strength": 4.739069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.501265, "energy": 14.897246, "activity_lines": [ 0.280333, 0.270182, 0.272726, 0.285059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.28, "volume": 223837, "typical_volume": 925018.75, "trend": 0.29475, "fair_value": 0.356779, "relative_strength": -2.414754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.015749, "energy": 15.829406, "activity_lines": [ 0.281667, 0.272909, 0.272405, 0.28414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.285, "volume": 265748, "typical_volume": 912018.95, "trend": 0.295917, "fair_value": 0.354119, "relative_strength": -3.295994, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.587652, "energy": 14.21424, "activity_lines": [ 0.284333, 0.276364, 0.272917, 0.283511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.285, "volume": 114943, "typical_volume": 845293.3, "trend": 0.297083, "fair_value": 0.35226, "relative_strength": -6.544505, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.953519, "energy": 14.918088, "activity_lines": [ 0.285, 0.279091, 0.273595, 0.282806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }