{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd8100b8-e62a-47c6-a07b-0fd623746a19", "symbol": "GEFR", "name": "Geffen Residence & Renewal Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.228, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.564, "architecture_energy": 12.624, "architecture_maturity": 32.211, "architecture_confidence": 58.479, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.51, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 36.58, "rotation_down": 25.58, "downward_expansion": 53.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.789333, 0.781509, 0.787619, 0.79632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.799, "trend_reference": 0.804533, "distance_from_trend": -0.006878, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.634904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.53438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006297, "excess_performance": -0.022603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258458, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006297, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.803039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 872016, "relative_activity": 1.877293, "balance": 1.803039, "dry_up": 0.908164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059497, "annualized_volatility": 0.283206, "from_high_reference": -0.106264, "from_low_reference": 0.14964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.804533, "fair_value_reference": 0.634904, "structural_low": 0.715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.019608, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.006399, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.386842, "worst_return": -0.220968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.049047, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.827869, "worst_return": -0.32267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.41, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.156432, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.381148, "worst_return": -0.500695, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.800965, "energy": 25.730997, "activity_lines": [ 0.777933, 0.777, 0.795057, 0.801783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.783, "volume": 412359, "typical_volume": 443230.85, "trend": 0.805667, "fair_value": 0.627205, "relative_strength": -10.569249, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.563577, "energy": 18.750603, "activity_lines": [ 0.783133, 0.776618, 0.792724, 0.800346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.771, "volume": 117174, "typical_volume": 431529.95, "trend": 0.806033, "fair_value": 0.629603, "relative_strength": -14.087329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.689118, "energy": 23.289761, "activity_lines": [ 0.784133, 0.775255, 0.78939, 0.79811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.785, "volume": 285846, "typical_volume": 438617.3, "trend": 0.8057, "fair_value": 0.632122, "relative_strength": -10.151839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.019824, "energy": 19.390097, "activity_lines": [ 0.786733, 0.777091, 0.787757, 0.796753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.799, "volume": 872016, "typical_volume": 464507.2, "trend": 0.804533, "fair_value": 0.634904, "relative_strength": -8.53438, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.564087, "energy": 12.624219, "activity_lines": [ 0.789333, 0.781509, 0.787619, 0.79632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }