{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd815cba-ce42-49f2-ae2d-c6b5040d9fb6", "symbol": "2331", "name": "Elitegroup Computer Systems Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.625, "architecture_energy": 30.123, "architecture_maturity": 47.267, "architecture_confidence": 82.156, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.7, "rotation_up": 20.97, "upward_expansion": 2.83, "deceleration": 57.51, "rotation_down": 47.96, "downward_expansion": 76.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.816666, 19.882727, 20.389286, 20.889785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.799999, "trend_reference": 21.991667, "distance_from_trend": -0.099659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.032752, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.831751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.218935, "excess_performance": -0.564667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176124, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000461, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.910868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16038278, "relative_activity": 1.025919, "balance": 1.910868, "dry_up": 0.829847, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104507, "annualized_volatility": 0.395147, "from_high_reference": -0.347611, "from_low_reference": 0.151163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.991667, "fair_value_reference": 24.032752, "structural_low": 17.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01156, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.009986, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.259016, "worst_return": -0.229798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003361, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.063883, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.292929, "worst_return": -0.150812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0363, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.106588, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.506721, "worst_return": -0.182163, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.908475, "energy": 66.395006, "activity_lines": [ 19.303333, 20.143636, 20.591667, 21.32043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 7372741, "typical_volume": 14668845.85, "trend": 22.316667, "fair_value": 24.119995, "relative_strength": -33.585692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.544157, "energy": 56.84654, "activity_lines": [ 19.313333, 19.960909, 20.481905, 21.151505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 18862148, "typical_volume": 15130941.7, "trend": 22.24, "fair_value": 24.075275, "relative_strength": -32.431998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.381245, "energy": 34.562149, "activity_lines": [ 19.72, 19.985454, 20.475476, 21.047204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 16038278, "typical_volume": 15633086.2, "trend": 21.991667, "fair_value": 24.032752, "relative_strength": -33.831751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.625387, "energy": 30.123084, "activity_lines": [ 19.816666, 19.882727, 20.389286, 20.889785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }