{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd912af4-5366-49dd-aa48-8c0fd7699daa", "symbol": "AUMN", "name": "Golden Minerals Company", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.741, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.246, "architecture_energy": 11.175, "architecture_maturity": 10.614, "architecture_confidence": 58.578, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.47, "rotation_up": 37.23, "upward_expansion": 35.48, "deceleration": 34.87, "rotation_down": 15.64, "downward_expansion": 41.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.289333, 0.283636, 0.27419, 0.285484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.3, "trend_reference": 0.308333, "distance_from_trend": -0.027027, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.480064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.375083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.084961, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.287088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027027, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.375083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250055, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.638122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23500, "relative_activity": 0.460288, "balance": 2.638122, "dry_up": 1.232005, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092308, "annualized_volatility": 0.590555, "from_high_reference": -0.647059, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.308333, "fair_value_reference": 0.480064, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008929, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.292341, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.292262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.408553, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.485194, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.904762, "worst_return": -0.746667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.723684, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.860347, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.930256, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.84, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.403042, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.541667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.326087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.421053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.19, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 26216.6, "trend": 5.466667, "fair_value": 13.330128, "relative_strength": -83.106555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.450219, "energy": 84.820976, "activity_lines": [ 1.39, 1.651273, 2.825333, 3.973269 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.25, "volume": 111900, "typical_volume": 31166.6, "trend": 5.166667, "fair_value": 13.245192, "relative_strength": -81.888324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.717555, "energy": 78.80867, "activity_lines": [ 1.306, 1.531091, 2.544381, 3.701226 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.12, "volume": 158300, "typical_volume": 38831.6, "trend": 4.895667, "fair_value": 13.157821, "relative_strength": -83.978628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.385173, "energy": 90.849586, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.419091, 2.282, 3.440151 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 0.91, "volume": 40900, "typical_volume": 40673.6, "trend": 4.651, "fair_value": 13.069103, "relative_strength": 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"trend": 0.333667, "fair_value": 0.524679, "relative_strength": -32.176632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.262741, "energy": 20.729521, "activity_lines": [ 0.274, 0.264364, 0.273333, 0.297269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.28, "volume": 37500, "typical_volume": 48125.0, "trend": 0.327333, "fair_value": 0.513205, "relative_strength": -36.565908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.255399, "energy": 19.746825, "activity_lines": [ 0.279333, 0.268182, 0.27181, 0.293806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.28, "volume": 103600, "typical_volume": 50520.0, "trend": 0.321667, "fair_value": 0.502949, "relative_strength": -36.011731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.191173, "energy": 18.206805, "activity_lines": [ 0.282, 0.271636, 0.270857, 0.290753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.28, "volume": 24900, "typical_volume": 48600.0, "trend": 0.317333, "fair_value": 0.494487, "relative_strength": -35.612877, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.502414, "energy": 16.137162, "activity_lines": [ 0.282667, 0.274727, 0.270476, 0.288065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.29, "volume": 99600, "typical_volume": 51805.0, "trend": 0.312667, "fair_value": 0.486474, "relative_strength": -32.623149, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.867682, "energy": 10.951151, "activity_lines": [ 0.284667, 0.278727, 0.271619, 0.286301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3, "volume": 23500, "typical_volume": 51055.0, "trend": 0.308333, "fair_value": 0.480064, "relative_strength": -32.084961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.246494, "energy": 11.175079, "activity_lines": [ 0.289333, 0.283636, 0.27419, 0.285484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }